MLB Betting 9/18/18 – Bales’ MyBookie Bets
Bales’ MyBookie Bets
San Francisco Giants
Derek Holland (+120)
Holland was an easy pitcher to target early this season, but he has been throwing at an elite level recently. Over the last 10 days, he owns a 2-0 record with a 2.38 ERA. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of his last 10 starts, and he has thrown six or more innings in each of his last four. He gets a great matchup against the San Diego Padres, who own a 3-3 record, while averaging 3.2 runs per game over the last week. Joey Lucchesi will be taking the mound for San Diego tonight. He has enjoyed a successful season, but has posted a 4-4 record with a 4.15 ERA over his last 10 starts. Surprisingly, Lucchesi has also been a worse pitcher at home, where his ERA increases and he gets less run support. San Francisco’s lack of offensive production is the only true worry in this game.
Bet 2 units on San Francisco ML to win 2.4 units (+120)
Josh James (-185)
James has featured a few ups and downs in limited innings this season. Most importantly, this game will feature plenty of the Houston Astros bullpen, which ranks first in the MLB in ERA. James will also benefit from throwing in a pitcher friendly stadium tonight. Houston gets somewhat of a tough matchup against Mike Leake, who owns a 2-3 record with a 3.32 ERA over his last 10 starts. With that being said, he has recently allowed six and five earned runs in two of his last four starts. He also owns an 0-2 record with a 5.00 ERA against Houston this season. The Astros are 4-2, while averaging 4.7 runs per game over the last week, and I trust their bullpen significantly more than Leake in this situation.
Bet 3 units on the Houston -1.5 RL to win 3.3 units (+110)
Chase Anderson (-210)
The Milwaukee Brewers have featured a dominant offense at home this season, where they own a 61.8% win rate, while averaging 4.7 runs per game. They get a great matchup against Michael Lorenzen, who will be making his first start since 2015 tonight. Over his last 10 games, he owns a 2-0 record with a 4.24 ERA. He is unlikely to throw more than a few innings, meaning Milwaukee will see plenty of time against the Cincinnati Reds below average bullpen. Chase Anderson will be taking the mound for Milwaukee, and he owns a 3-0 record with a 3.99 ERA over his last 10 starts. He has also allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of those games. The Reds have struggled on the road against right-handed pitching, and they are averaging only 1.3 runs per game over the last week, failing to score more than two runs in any of their last five contests. It’s a bit shocking Milwaukee’s runline is set at even at the moment.
Bet 3 units on the Milwaukee -1.5 RL to win 3 units (+100)
Parlay 2 units on Washington ML, Milwaukee ML, Cleveland ML, Tampa Bay ML, and Pittsburgh ML to win 10.3 units (+516)
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