MLB DFS 9/18/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays have flashed upside at times this season, ranking 19th in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in team batting average, and 14th in OPS. They have struggled at times on the road, where they won a .252 average with a .399 slugging percentage and a .719 OPS. Tampa Bay is averaging 4.1 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game on the road, as well. They are currently -195 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.6 runs.
The Rays get a matchup against Yovani Gallardo, who owns an 8-5 record with a 6.67 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP through 18 games (15 starts). He has also allowed a 1.5 HR/9 with a 5.7 K/9 through 79.2 innings. He has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .331 average with a .564 slugging percentage and a .412 wOBA. He’s also allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .237/.440/.332 line this season. Furthermore, Gallardo is allowing his opponents to hit for a .340/.679/.461 in September, as well. The Rays have struggled at times on the road this season, but they are playing in a hitter friendly stadium tonight. They make one of the safest stacking option on this slate, but they also comes with quite a bit of upside.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
The Milwaukee Brewers continue to feature a relatively average offense, ranking 13th in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in team batting average, and 11th in OPS. They have been a better offense in Milwaukee, as well, hitting .246 with a .428 slugging percentage and a .750 OPS through 76 games. The Brewers are also averaging 4.7 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game at home. They are a -185 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.3 runs.
Milwaukee gets a great matchup against Michael Lorenzen tonight. He will be making his first start of the season, but he has been struggling recently, record a 2-0 record with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP through his last 10 games. He has allowed a 1.1 HR/9 with a 9.0 K/9 over his last 17 innings, as well. Lorenzen has struggled quite a bit against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .279 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .351 wOBA. The Brewers feature an offense that can dominate anyone in Milwaukee, and that should be the case again tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled at times this season, ranking only 20th in the MLB in runs scored, 10th in team batting average, and 18th in OPS. They have struggled at times in Pittsburgh, though, posting a .258 average with a .400 slugging percentage and a .727 OPS through 75 home games. The Pirates are averaging 4.1 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game in those games, as well. Pittsburgh is a -210 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 4.5 runs tonight.
Eric Skoglund will be taking the mound for the Kansas City Royals. He has struggled through 11 games (10 starts), recording a 1-5 record with a 6.19 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.8 HR/9 with a 6.8 K/9 through 56.2 innings. He has struggled against everyone this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .280 average with a .505 slugging percentage and a .357 wOBA, while lefties are hitting for a .205/.564/.376 line. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .286/.516/.367 line on the road in 2018. The Pirates make one of the highest upside stacks on the slate in this matchup.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Taylor has been playing at a high level, as he’s hitting .318 with a .682 slugging percentage and a 1.082 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 35% hard-hit and 58% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Taylor has recorded a .455 slugging percentage and a .218 ISO against left-handed pitching, as well.
Suzuki has performed well against left-handed pitching this season, recording a .488 slugging percentage and a .220 ISO against lefties. He’s also hitting .348 with three home runs over his last 10 games. Furthermore, Suzuki has posted 54% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Choi homered for us last night, and I’m going back to the well tonight. He owns 51% hard-hit and 54% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also dominated right-handed pitching, entering this game with 0.136 wOBA and 0.101 ISO differentials against righties.
Austin has dominated left-handed pitching throughout his career, featuring .588 slugging percentage and a .316 ISO against lefties. He’s been struggling with a back injury, but he owns a 40% home run rate over his last 10 games. He has also dominated the Tigers in limited matchups this season.
Altherr has caught fire over his last 10 games, hitting .368 with an .842 slugging percentage and a 1.242 OPS over that span. He has also recorded a 58% hard-hit and 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He owns a .426 slugging percentage and a .209 ISO against left-handed pitching throughout his career.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Holland has been throwing at an elite level over his last 10 starts, posting a 2-0 record with a 2.38 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in those games. He has held his opponents to a 0.6 HR/9, while posting a 8.6 K/9 over his last 56.2 innings. Holland has also scored 20+ DK points in three of his last four starts. Holland is an underdog in this game, but his opponents feature an implied run total of only 3.8 runs.
Holland gets a great matchup against the San Diego Padres, who rank sixth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking third last in team wOBA. Holland has thrown at an elite level against left-handed batters, holding them to a .183 average with .209 slugging percentage and a .230 wOBA. He has been throwing well enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Guyer has been playing at a high level over his last 10 games, recording a .320 average with a .440 slugging percentage and an .873 OPS over that span. He also owns 47% hard-hit and 42% fly ball rate with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Guyer also enters this game with 0.146 wOBA and 0.127 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
He gets a matchup against Carlos Rodon, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .196 average with a .331 slugging percentage and a .277 wOBA. Guyer is only hitting seventh in the Indians lineup, but he has been playing well enough to be considered in all leagues against a left-handed pitcher.
Mercer has been struggling a bit recently, as he’s hitting only .156 with a .219 slugging percentage and a .425 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns 42% hard-hit and 35% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, though. Mercer also owns a career .320 wOBA and a .453 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching.
I have already outlined Eric Skoglund above, so I will not do that again. Mercer is only hitting eighth in the Pirates offense, which is concerning. He’s a player that is best suited for tournaments, as is the case with the rest of a Pirates stack.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
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