Pitchers
Justin Verlander- So, on the stream today I was pretty firmly on Wheeler over Verlander, but after seeing the Twins lineup — missing CJ Cron, Nelson Cruz and the injured Willians Astudillo coupled with one of the infamous pitchers umpires in the MLB (Bill Miller) behind the plate, I have bumped up Verlander in my own rankings. Make no mistake, this was already the best overall pitcher on the slate alongside Patrick Corbin, but given his price I was comfortable moving down to Wheeler to fit in more bats. These two factors have elevated Verlander enough for me to attempt to fit him into my cash game roster and after playing around with some lineups it doesn’t appear as hard as I originally thought it would be.
Zack Wheeler- Wheeler has rattled off three straight stellar starts after two duds to open 2019, and he’s been even better with the strikeouts early on this season than the end of last year, and has hit triple digits with his fastball a few times. The main issue with Wheeler is the control, he sported a 10.4% walk rate on 2017, 7.4% last season and he’s back at 11.0% this season. He’s still very much affordable, especially on FanDuel, and his matchup against the Reds is better than both of the matchups for Justin Verlander and Patrick Corbin. I expect him to be one of the highest-owned pitchers on this slate and he is viable in all formats.
Mike Soroka- Anyone that follows me or is in Discord knows of my love for Mike Soroka. This is one of the most analytical pitchers in the MLB, in terms of him using analytics to better his pitches, and that’s why I firmly believe that like Trevor Bauer, when we see a positive change with him it is legitimate. He’s jumped his swinging strikes from just over 10.0% last season to 11.4% this season, and his strikeouts have followed rising to 26.5%. He threw over 100 pitches in his last start, and he has arguably the best matchup out of the aforementioned pitchers when it comes to K’s against the Padres. I’m not projecting him for very high ownership at his price, but I’m comfortable with him in tournaments and as an SP2 in cash games on DK.
Tournament Pitcher Pool: John Means, Eduardo
Building Blocks
Jesus Aguilar- Yes, he has been incredibly bad this season…but could that be in part due to the 0.77 BABIP against southpaws? The hard-contact is still there at over 45.0% and this is a player that posted a .267 ISO and 144 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers in 2018. At minimum salary on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings, I’m going to be nearly all-in on him in cash games tonight.
I’m only going to tag Aguilar as a building block for tonight’s slate because I know 100% he will be in my cash game lineups. Aside from him, I will be building around the Atlanta Braves (see below), and filling in with some cheap Mets or Brewers where we have them.
Stacks
1. Atlanta Braves- I was all over the Braves yesterday, if you’re in Discord you know that, and I’m going back to the well today against Nick Margevicius who I personally think has been a fraud up to this point. This kid doesn’t have good stuff, he throws an average of 88 MPH on his fast ball and has generated only 9.0% swinging strikes. He looks like he’s going to be a ground ball pitcher, which can be frustrating to stack against, but I’m less worried when it’s the Braves who have been one of the best teams in the MLB against left-handed pitchers the last two seasons. Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Josh Donaldson and even Freddie Freeman all have fantastic numbers and hard hits against lefties and they match up well with his pitch mix (heavy fastball/slider). The Braves are my top offense in all formats tonight and I don’t anticipate them being highly-owned once again.
2. Washington Nationals- Michael Wacha had an extremely lucky 2018, fueled mostly by BABIP, and he’s right back with a near 15.0% walk rate and a 4.95 SIERA in 2019. The Nationals have a good lineup up and down, but not one that garners a ton of attention in DFS most nights due to high prices and the fact that Bryce Harper is out of town. If Anthony Rendon misses again tonight, I would start with Victor Robles and Juan Soto and fill in with whichever guy is in the lineup between Matt Adams and Ryan Zimmerman.
Chalk Stacks: Astros, Red Sox
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
