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MLB DFS (8/1/18) – Bobby’s Batter Up

MLB BATTER UP August 1st, 2018
  •  This PREMIUM article features top offensive batters per position
  • This includes value plays, upside plays, and contrarian plays
  • Strategic game theory on why we are selecting these batters
  • Advice on the best “Game Stacks” of the day
  • The same players in these articles are the same players you can find in the core of our lineups!

Top Stacks – One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB.  Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset.  Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team.  This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments.  It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up).  Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.

 

  1. Brewers (+141) –  The Brewers are +141 dogs on this slate and will be low-owned.  With only 6 games on this slate it is essential to differentiate ourselves in GPP.  The Brewers are in the playoff hunt and made the move for Jonathan Schoop at the trade deadline so we know the narrative is there for this team to perform.  Rich Hill is definitely a quality starter but in my opinion is overrated and there are some numbers we can pull to back it up.  The first flag in his advanced statistics is that his aHC% is at 44.4% for the season which is tough to believe from a pitcher with a 3.82 ERA.  His xFIP and SIERA don’t look as bad as they should when factoring the type of contact he’s allowing because he’s decent in limiting walks and is decietful enough to register a 26.2% K rate (his lowest since 2012).  The guy is 38 and can’t pitch forever which is evident by his 89.2 aFB velocity.  When analyzing the values of his pitches I am not seeing anything to crazy for a pitcher that is regarded in such high value.  Outside of his slider which is slightly above average, all his pitches are basically average, except his curveball which is suprisingly his worst pitch.  His SwStr% is way down this season to 9.2% so I don’t think his K rate stays at this level much longer.  I’m going to be targeting Rich Hill heavily over these next two months and into the playoffs.  He’s an overrated pitcher.
          1. Favorite One-Off: Christian Yelich
          2. Best Bet for a home run: Jesus Aguilar
  2. Pirates (+103) – The Pirates are a simialir story to the Brewers on this slate in which they have an implied run total under 4 but have made some big moves at the trade deadline (aquisiton of Chris Archer) and have the narrative in their favor at home as they make a push for the playoffs. They’re on the mound against the Cubs new starting pitcher Cole Hamels.  This is not the Cole Hamels of 2014, unfortunatley for the Cubs, he shouldn’t be doing too much extra from this rotation as his FIP is a 5.20 and owns a aHC% of 45%.  I can admit I was surprised in doing my research to see his SIERA is only at 4.10 but that doesn’t mean he’s good by any means.  A 4.10 SIERA is still “below average”.  Similair to Rich Hill he’s been able to limit the spike in his xFIP by preventing too many walks and keep a decent K rate at 22.1%.  The same with Hill, in today’s MLB you can’t be allowing a hard hit ball every other AB and expect to produce.  It’s honestly amazing that Hamels BABIP is below .300 given the type of hard contact he gives up which is a similair situation to Hill’s. This seems to me like two aging pitcher’s who the baseball gods have been cutting some breaks.  Look for them to both to be exposed over the next couple weeks including tonight.
          1. Favorite One-Off: Starling Marte
          2. Best Bet for a home run: Elias Diaz

 

 

 

 

Highest upside player picks per position 
(High Owned, Low Owned)
 
Catcher –   S. Perez, Y. Molina
1st base –  J. Abreu, C. Bellinger
2nd base –  Y. Moncada, B. Dozier
Shortstop –  T. Anderson, M. Machado
3rd base – M. Davidson, M. Muncy
OF –  M. Trout, R. Acuna, W. Merrifield
  C. Blackmon, T. Pham, G. Polanco
Good luck everyone let’s hit this slate out of the park!

 

Written By: @DF_Advantage 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by DFS Karma LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however, we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. DFS Karma LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at DFS Karma LLC at the time of publication.

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