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MLB DFS 8/11/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers continue to be the “Chalk Stack” in Coors. They rank seventh in the MLB in runs scored, 20th in team batting average, and sixth in OPS. The Dodgers have also found plenty of success on the road, where they are hitting .248 with a .429 slugging percentage and a .762 OPS. They are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.6 extra- base hits per game away from home, as well. Tonight, they are -136 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them an implied run total of 6.0 runs.

The Dodgers get a matchup against Kyle Freeland, who has found plenty of success this season. Through 23 starts, he owns a 10-7 record with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He has also held his opponents to a 0.8 HR/9, while recording a 7.1 K/9 through 139 innings. Freeland also owns a 4.40 xFIP and 4.51 SIERA, suggesting he will see regression as the season continues. He has struggled at times against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .243 average with a .384 slugging percentage and a .304 wOBA. The Dodgers have found plenty of success in Coors during this series, and that should continue tonight.

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox currently lead the MLB in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS. Boston has “struggled” on the road this season, but they are still hitting .260 with a .437 slugging percentage and a .770 OPS through 60 road games. They are also averaging 5.3 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game on the road this season. They are -205 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs tonight, and they own the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.3 runs.

Boston gets a matchup against Yefry Ramirez, who has struggled with a 1-4 record, 5.66 ERA, and 1.49 WHIP through eight games (seven starts). He has also allowed a 1.5 HR/9, while recording a 9.0 K/9 through 35 innings. He has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .265 average with a .415 slugging percentage and a .369 wOBA. He’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .232/.464/.314 line in 2018, as well. Furthermore, Ramirez has allowed 83.3% of his home runs in Baltimore this season. The Red Sox feature arguably the best offense in the MLB, and this is a matchup they can take advantage of. This is somewhat of a second “Chalk Stack,” though.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Oakland A’s

The Oakland A’s have found quite a bit of success this season, ranking eighth in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in team batting average, and ninth in OPS. They have also looked outstanding on the road this season, recording a .263 average with a .467 slugging percentage and a .797 OPS through 60 road games. Oakland is averaging 5.5 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game away from home. They are small underdogs in a game set at 8 runs, giving them an implied run total of only 3.8 runs tonight.

Tyler Skaggs will be taking the mound for the Los Angeles Angels tonight. He has found success through 20 starts, recording an 8-7 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He has posted a 0.7 HR/9 and a 9.4 K/9 through 113.1 innings. Skaggs has struggled more against right-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .254 average with a .364 slugging percentage and a .306 wOBA. He has also allowed lefties to record a .409 slugging percentage this season. Oakland comes with quite a bit of risk in this matchup, but they also comes with tremendous upside.

 

Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor

Eric Thames

I’m going back to the well with Thames in a hitter friendly stadium for left-handed batters. He owns 70% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 99 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Thames has also dominated right-handed pitching, recording 0.123 wOBA and 0.169 ISO differentials against righties.

Kole Calhoun

Calhoun has been on fire recently, posting a .316 average with a .684 slugging percentage and a 1.093 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 56% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 99 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Calhoun features 0.073 wOBA and 0.137 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well.

Lucas Duda

Duda has quietly posted great peripherals over the last 15 days, recording 40% hard-hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over that span. He owns a career .484 slugging percentage and a .233 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Matt Carpenter

Carpenter continues to play at an absurd level, posting a .308 average with an .897 slugging percentage and a 1.326 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns 50% hard-hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Carpenter is also leading off for St. Louis and could see a couple extra at-bats tonight.

Chris Davis

Davis has been heating up recently, hitting three home runs over his last 10 games. He has also looked outstanding with 62% hard-hit and 41% fly ball rates and a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also possesses a career .500 slugging percentage and a .255 ISO against right-handed pitching.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Trevor Williams

Williams has found quite a bit of success this season, posting a 9-8 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP through 22 starts. He has allowed a 1.0 HR/9 with a 6.3 K/9 through 116 innings, as well. He has also scored 17+ DK points in five of his last eight starts. This game is essentially a pick ‘em set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.3 runs tonight.

Williams gets a matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who rank as a below average offense on the slate in team wOBA. He has also found some success against right-handed batters, holding them to a .236 average with a .402 slugging percentage and a .304 wOBA. Williams has also held his opponents to a .222/.401/.306 line on the road this season. He gets a plus matchup in one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.

 

Hidden Gems: Value Hitters

Jeff McNeil

McNeil has looked outstanding through 15 games in the Majors, posting a .289 average with a .467 slugging percentage and an .863 OPS. He owns 34% hard-hit and 39% fly ball rates with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. McNeil has been a better option against right-handed pitching, featuring 0.044 wOBA and 0.242 ISO differentials against righties this season.

He gets a solid matchup against Dan Straily, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .251 average with a .443 slugging percentage and a .358 wOBA. McNeil has been hitting second in the Mets lineup, and he makes an elite option in all leagues for his current price tag.

Stephen Piscotty

Piscotty has been ice cold recently, but he’s hitting .267 with a .518 slugging percentage and an .854 OPS on the road this season. He owns a 37% hard-hit rate and 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also been a slightly more consistent option against left-handed pitching, recording a 0.008 wOBA differential against lefties.

I have already outlined Tyler Skaggs above, so I will not do that again. Piscotty is only expected to hit seventh in the Oakland lineup, but he comes with quite a bit of upside. He has not been the most consistent option, but he makes a great tournament option on this slate.

 

By: Justin Bales (Twitter)

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