Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Texas Rangers only rank 19th in the MLB in team batting average, but they also rank 12th in OPS and fifth in runs scored. They have also been a better offense at home, where they are hitting .258 with a .445 slugging percentage and a .789 OPS. The Rangers are averaging 5.5 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game at home, as well. Texas is currently a -113 favorite in a game set at 11 runs. They feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.7 runs.
The Rangers get a matchup against Taylor Cole, who has thrown well in relief appearances this season. Through nine games (one start), Cole owns an 0-2 record with a 2.95 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. He has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his short career, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .303 average with a .469 slugging percentage and a .374 wOBA. He will not pitch deep into this game, though, so Texas will see plenty of Los Angeles’ bullpen, who has thrown well overall this season. Texas is a team that can always be considered at home, and tonight is no exception.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Arizona Diamondbacks have featured an inconsistent offense this season, ranking 17th in the MLB in runs scored, 27th in team batting average, and 19th in OPS. They are an offense that has struggled at times on the road this season, hitting only .230 with a .405 slugging percentage and a .708 OPS. They’re also averaging 4.4 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game away from home. They are -143 favorites in a game set at only 8 runs, giving them an implied run total of 4.4 runs.
Jacob Nix will be taking the mound for the San Diego Padres tonight. He looked outstanding in his first start, but his 4.20 xFIP and 4.60 SIERA suggest he got lucky in that start. He struggled more against left-handed batters, although the sample size is entirely too small to trust. Nix found plenty of success in the minor leagues this season, as well. When you couple that with his success in his first start, the Diamondbacks are a stack that could go overlooked tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Story has been on fire over his last 10 games, posting a .300 average with a .550 slugging percentage and an .843 OPS over that span. He also owns 41% hard-hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Story also owns a .516 slugging percentage and a .236 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Calhoun continues to play at a high level, recording a .333 average with a .590 slugging percentage and a .990 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 54% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Calhoun also dominated right-handed pitching, featuring 0.04 wOBA and 0.101 ISO differentials against righties.
Ohtani has posted an elite .623 slugging percentage and a .318 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He has also posted 31% hard-hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Gaviglio has featured plenty of ups and downs this season, posting a 2-5 record with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP through 18 games (16 starts). He has also flashed plenty of upside, holding his opponents to a 1.5 HR/9, while posting an 8.7 K/9 through 83.1 innings. He has also scored 15+ DK points in five of his last nine games. He’s a -131 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, as well.
Gaviglio gets an elite matchup against the Kansas City Royals, who strikeout at an above average rate on this slate, while also ranking in the bottom-five in team wOBA. He has also been a better option against right-handed batters, holding them to a .253 average with a .436 slugging percentage and a .317 wOBA. Gaviglio has struggled on the road this season, but he gets an elite matchup in a pitcher friendly stadium. He’s a high upside salary relief option on a small slate tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Gordon has been struggling a bit recently, hitting only .206 with a .206 slugging percentage and a .563 OPS over his last 10 games. He has scored fantasy points in nine of those 10 games. Gordon also owns 33% hard-hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He features 0.076 wOBA and 0.108 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well.
He gets a matchup against Sam Gaviglio, who has struggled at times against left-handed batters. He’s allowing lefties to hit for a .291 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .358 wOBA. Gordon is hitting second in the Kansas City lineup, and he’s a safe option, although he lacks a bit of upside.
Adduci has been heating up over his last 10 games, posting a .294 average with a .471 slugging percentage and a .785 OPS over that span. He has posted 42% hard-hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Adduci also owns 0.335 wOBA and 0.164 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
He gets a matchup against Ervin Santana, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .255 average with a .551 slugging percentage and a .373 wOBA this season. Adduci is hitting sixth in the Tigers lineup, and he’s a fairly consistent option that comes with tremendous upside. He’s a great option on a smaller slate.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)