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MLB DFS 8/2/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals recently scored 25 runs in a game, which could increase their ownership tonight. They rank 15th in the MLB in runs scored, 14th in team batting average, and 12th in OPS. They have looked significantly better at home this season, where they are hitting .261 with a .433 slugging percentage and a .772 OPS. The Nationals are averaging 4.9 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game in Washington, as well. They are -268 favorites in a game set at 8 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.1 runs tonight.

The Nationals get a matchup against Tyler Mahle, who owns a 7-8 record with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP through 21 starts. He has also struggled a bit at home, where he is allowing a ridiculous 2.7 HR/9, while posting an 11.1 K/9 through 52.2 innings. Mahle has also struggled against left-handed batters, who are hitting for a .292 average with a .580 slugging percentage and a .414 wOBA against him this season. The Washington Nationals are in an elite spot tonight, and they make up one of the best stacking option on this slate.

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers only rank 25th in the MLB in team batting average and 17th in OPS, but they also rank 12th in runs scored. They have also been a much better offense at home, posting a .251 average with a .430 slugging percentage and a .769 OPS. They are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game in Texas this season, as well. The Rangers are -150 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs. They own the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.9 runs.

Texas gets a matchup against Andrew Cashner, who has featured a plethora of ups and downs through 20 starts. Overall, he owns a 3-9 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Cashner has also allowed his opponents to post a 1.3 HR/9, while recording a 6.8 K/9 through 112.1 innings. Cashner has struggled quite a bit against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .270 average with a .496 slugging percentage and a .256 wOBA. He is also allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .282/.450/.349 line in the same categories. Furthermore, Cashner has allowed his opponents to hit for a .305/.526/.382 line on the road. The Rangers have found ways to score runs throughout the season, and they make a great stacking option on this slate.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves have found plenty of success this season, ranking ninth in the MLB in runs scored, third in team batting average, and eighth in OPS. They have also looked outstanding away from home, where they own a .268 average with a .450 slugging percentage and a .784 OPS. Atlanta is also averaging 5.1 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game on the road this season. The Braves are also -154 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 4.8 runs.

Jason Vargas will be taking the mound for the New York Mets tonight. He has struggled through 10 starts this season, recording a 2-6 record with an 8.36 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. Vargas has allowed a 2.6 HR/9 with a 7.5 K/9 through 42 innings, as well. He is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .331 average with a .608 slugging percentage and a .420 wOBA, while lefties are hitting for a .304/.543/.409 line. The Braves are an offense that comes with tremendous upside, and that will be the case again tonight.

 

Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor

Chris Davis

Davis owns 4 home runs with a 66.7% home run rate over his last 10 games. He also owns 45% hard-hit and 62% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Davis owns a career .501 slugging percentage and a .255 ISO against right-handed pitching, as well.

Jorge Alfaro

Alfaro is a powerful catcher, who is hitting .265 with a .441 slugging percentage and an .800 OPS over his last 10 games. He possesses 55% hard-hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Alfaro has also posted 0.075 wOBA and 0.061 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.

Bryce Harper

Harper has caught fire recently, hitting .344 with a .656 slugging percentage and a 1.120 OPS over his last 10 games. He has also dominated right-handed pitching throughout his career, posting a .543 slugging percentage and a .256 ISO.

Yasiel Puig

Puig has been a better option against right-handed pitching, posting 0.064 wOBA and 0.097 ISO differentials against righties. He also owns three home runs over his last 10 games. Furthermore, Puig has posted 70% hard-hit and 30% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.

Mookie Betts

Betts has been an elite option at home, where he’s hitting .370 with a .719 slugging percentage and a 1.173 OPS. He also owns an elite .753 slugging percentage and a .400 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Betts has caught fire over the last 15 days, as well, posting 52% hard-hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over that span.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Mike Montgomery

Montgomery has struggled quite a bit this season, posting a 3-4 record with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP through 29 games (11 starts). He has held his opponents to a 0.7 K/9, while posting a 5.6 K/9. He comes with a bit more strikeout potential, though, as he owns a career 6.8 K/9. Montgomery is currently a -162 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.8 runs.

Montgomery gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. He has performed well against left-handed batters, holding them to a .243 average with a .337 slugging percentage and a .293 wOBA. Montgomery has been a relief pitcher for the majority of the season, but he has scored double digit fantasy points in six of his last nine games. He comes with a bit of risk, but Montgomery makes a solid option on a slate with little to no salary relief pitching options.

 

Hidden Gems: Value Hitters

Matt Wieters

Wieters has struggled a bit over his last 10 games, recording a .143 average with a .200 slugging percentage and a .450 OPS over his last 10 games. He has been a better option at home, though, where his average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS all increase. Wieters is a high upside option, who owns a 0.048 ISO differential against right-handed pitching.

I have already outlined Tyler Mahle above, so I will not do that again. Wieters is only expected to hit eighth in the Washington lineup, but he could still see a few RBI opportunities tonight. He does come with some risk, but he also comes with quite a bit of upside for his position and price tag.

Brandon Crawford

Crawford is an extremely consistent option, scoring fantasy points in each of his last eight games. He has also been a more consistent and more powerful option against right-handed pitching, as he features 0.03 wOBA and 0.017 ISO differentials against righties.

Crawford gets a matchup against Zack Greinke, who has been throwing at a high level this season. He’s allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .231 average with a .353 slugging percentage and a .275 wOBA. Crawford is expected to hit third in the Giants lineup, giving him ample opportunities for fantasy points tonight. He’s a safe option, although he somewhat lacks upside.

 

By: Justin Bales (Twitter)

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