MLB DFS 8/27/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Chicago Cubs has looked outstanding through 129 games this season. They currently rank seventh in the MLB in runs scored, second in team batting average, and fourth in OPS. They have also been playing at an elite level at home, where he is hitting .271 with a .439 slugging percentage and a .788 OPS. The Cubs are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game in Chicago, as well. They are -132 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.7 runs.
The Cubs get a matchup against Noah Syndergaard tonight. He has thrown well this season, recording a 9-3 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP through 18 starts. He also possesses a 0.5 HR/9 with a 9.4 K/9 through 106.2 innings. Syndergaard has struggled at times against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .272 average with a .350 slugging percentage and a .296 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .262/.360/.284 line on the road, as well. The Cubs have featured one of the hottest offenses in the MLB over the last week, and they make an outstanding stacking option on a smaller slate tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Philadelphia Phillies have featured plenty of offensive ups and downs this season, ranking 20th in the MLB in runs scored, 27th in team batting average, and 23rd in OPS. They have been at their best in Philadelphia, where they own a .241 average with a .419 slugging percentage and a .736 OPS through 63 games. The Phillies are also averaging 4.8 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game at home. They are underdogs tonight, but in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.4 runs.
Stephen Strasburg will be taking the mound for the Washington Nationals tonight. He has been struggling over his last 10 games, recording a 4-5 record with a 4.98 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over that span. He has also allowed a 1.3 HR/9, while posting an 11.3 K/9 over his last 56 innings. Strasburg has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .248 average with a .468 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA. He’s allowing lefties to hit for a .241/.408/.301 line, as well. The Phillies feature a high upside offense, and they make a great tournament stack in this matchup.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Frazier continues to play at a high level, posting a .242 average with a .576 slugging percentage and an .873 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 47% hard-hit and 65% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Frazier has also posted a .496 slugging percentage and a .252 ISO against left-handed pitching in his career.
Morales has been playing at an absurd level recently, hitting eight home runs in his last seven games. He owns 45% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Morales also gets an elite matchup in an extremely hitter friendly stadium tonight.
Ohtani has dominated right-handed pitching this season, posting 0.195 wOBA and 0.266 ISO differentials against righties. He’s also hitting .300 with a .700 slugging percentage and a 1.064 OPS over his last 10 games. Ohtani has posted 35% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Gaviglio has struggled on the road this season, recording a 1-5 record with an 8.36 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP through nine road starts. He has also allowed a 2.4 HR/9, while posting a 7.4 K/9 through 37.2 road innings. Gaviglio is a -130 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, though, and his opponents own an implied run total of 4.5 runs.
Gaviglio gets a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat and last in team wOBA. Gaviglio is also averaging 22.7 DK points per game against Baltimore this season. He has also found more success against right-handed batters, holding them to a .267 average with a .442 slugging percentage and a .332 wOBA. Furthermore, Gaviglio owns a 3.97 xFIP and a 4.00 SIERA this season, suggesting he will see positive regression as the season continues.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Voit has caught fire over his last 10 games, posting a .379 average with a .690 slugging percentage and a 1.127 OPS. He owns a 41% hard-hit rate with a 96 mph exit velocity over his last five games, as well. Voit is also at his best against left-handed pitching, recording 0.065 wOBA and 0.007 ISO differentials against lefties.
He gets a matchup against Carlos Rodon, who has struggled against right-handed batters throughout his career. Overall, he’s allowing righties to hit for a .253 average with a .422 slugging percentage and a .330 wOBA. Voit is hitting fourth in one of the best offenses in the MLB. He’s also hitting in one of the most hitter friendly stadiums in the league, making Voit an elite salary relief option.
d’Arnaud has found plenty of success at home this season, recording a .290 average with a .516 slugging percentage and an .859 OPS through 12 home games. He has been playing well over the last 15 days, as well, recording 25% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over that span. He owns elite 0.167 wOBA and 0.2 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching, as well.
d’Arnaud gets a matchup against Patrick Corbin, who has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, but has struggled against right-handed batters throughout his career. He has allowed righties to hit for a .263 average with a .430 slugging percentage and a .322 wOBA since joining the MLB. d’Arnaud is only hitting seventh in the Giants lineup, but he has been a fairly consistent option. He can be considered in all leagues tonight.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)