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MLB DFS (8/3/18) – Bobby’s Batter Up

MLB BATTER UP August 3rd, 2018
  •  This PREMIUM article features top offensive batters per position
  • This includes value plays, upside plays, and contrarian plays
  • Strategic game theory on why we are selecting these batters
  • Advice on the best “Game Stacks” of the day
  • The same players in these articles are the same players you can find in the core of our lineups!

Top Stacks – One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB.  Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset.  Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team.  This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments.  It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up).  Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.

 

  1. Diamondbacks (-179) –   The Diamondbacks are a team that will go very over-looked on a 14 game slate.  They are at home in a hitter’s ballpark against Christ Stratton.  A little background on Stratton and why we would consider targeting him.  For starters, he owns a BAD 4.50 xFIP followed by an atrocious 4.75 SIERA.  Another box is checked for me with his aHC% over 40%.  He doesn’t have any “stuff” shown by a SwStr% 2% below the league average and a sad K rate.  Stratton in terms of wOBA has been equally bad against lefties and righties but when we look at his xFIP splits he really is going to be struggling with lefties in this matchup. With 6 lefties in the D-Backs projected lineup, we can see why Vegas implies them for 4.9 runs tomorrow.  The number one guy I’m looking at is David Peralta, batting 3rd, who owns a team-high 143 wRC+ against righties.  This is a prime matchup for him and he is guaranteed to do some damage.  Next consider Paul Goldschmidt (129 wRC+/.365 wOBA/13.6 wRAA/.216 ISO), Daniel Descalso (128 wRC+/.365 wOBA/.844 OPS), and Jon Jay – leading off (100 wRC+/.322 wOBA/.738 OPS) who are all a great stack to mix into your GPP lineups.  The Diamondbacks will have fairly low ownership on what’s a big Friday slate.
          1. Favorite One-Off: David Peralta
          2. Best Bet for a home run: Paul Goldschmidt
  2. Rays (-105) – The Rays are in a great spot against Lucas Giolito who I’m going to be all over until this guy gets knocked out of the majors.  This is a can’t miss spot even with a weaker Rays lineup to work with.  The Vegas total isn’t out for this team yet so that is something to keep an eye on but I know I’m all in on this Rays team for the most part and will be with basically any team playing Giolito.  I’ve gone over Giolito’s stats before but they are truly atrocious.  This dude should not be on a major league roster.  He owns a 6.13 xFIP and a 5.88 (!!!!!) SIERA.  He is going to get crapped on for lack of better words against any major league roster he faces.  It’s hard to believe given the names on this Rays roster but they have 9 players over a 100 wRC+.  No one really stands out too much but you do want to focus on the guys towards the high-end of this wRC+ range.  This starts off with Jake Bauers (131 wRC+) who also brings a strong ISO to the table at .265.  He’s an amazing play where he is projected to bat 3rd in the Rays lineup.  Next get exposure to Daniel Robertson (125 wRC+/.351 wOBA), CJ Cron (120 wRC+/.241 ISO), Wilson Ramos (118 wRC+/.340 wOBA), Mallex Smith (sucks he bats ninth but owns a 113 wRC+/.334 wOBA), and Matt Duffy – who lacks a lot of pop at .089 ISO but is a great hitter none the less with a 112 wRC+ and .333 wOBA.  These guys are all ELITE plays against a pitcher such as Giolito who is going to give up a minimum of 5 runs in this start against the Rays.
          1. Favorite One-Off: Jake Bauers
          2. Best Bet for a home run: CJ Cron

 

 

 

 

Highest upside player picks per position 
(High Owned, Low Owned)
 
Catcher –   R. Chirinos, Y. Grandal
1st base –  M. Carpenter, L. Morrison
2nd base –  R. Odor, Y. Moncada
Shortstop –  F. Lindor, J. Profar
3rd base – J. Ramirez, M. Chapman
OF –  M. Betts, M. Trout, B. Harper
  E. Rosario, N. Cruz, W. Merrifield
Good luck everyone let’s hit this slate out of the park!

 

Written By: @DF_Advantage 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by DFS Karma LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however, we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. DFS Karma LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at DFS Karma LLC at the time of publication.

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