MLB DFS 8/3/18 Ben’s Building Blocks
Jacob deGrom (-145): deGrom has been a model of consistency for the Mets this season posting a 3.02 SIERA with 30% strikeouts. The Braves are tough to target given their contact-heavy nature, but deGrom is still striking out lefties at an above-30% clip so we don’t have to worry a ton about the focal point of the Braves offense such as Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Nick Markakis. I prefer this matchup to Verlander’s by a touch, and deGrom is the clear top play for me if you can get up to his salary. He possesses upside, but you’re paying for the floor and consistency in this matchup which is better suited for cash games.
Chris Archer (-158): If you like narratives, then you will probably be inclined to fire up Archer in his Pirates debut. I actually do like the spot however, and I have targeted the Cardinals with right-handers for a while now. You would think the Cardinals are a good offense, but they actually rank 23rd in wRC+ against righties and don’t feature much left-handed worry outside of Matt Carpenter. He should see mainly righties tonight and his K% against RHP sits at a solid 27% this season. The Cards run total has dropped 0.5 since open and I think we could see Archer end up pretty popular tonight.
Vince Velasquez (-175): I’ve actually used V quite a bit this season and he’s really taken a step forward. He sports a 3.82 SIERA this season and has dropped his hard-contact allowed to under 32%. The walks are still somewhat an issue, but given that the Marlins rank bottom-five in walk rate against RHP I don’t think it should be a huge issue tonight. He, like Aaron Nola and Nick Pivetta, is much better at home and he has arguably the top matchup on the board with this weak Marlins offense.
Jake Odorizzi (-200): Odorizzi is my favorite cheap pitching option tonight, as scary as that sounds. He has a smash matchup with the Kansas City Royals who have been ice-cold coming in with a bottom-ten wRC+ over the last month while striking out 24.7% of the time. Odorizzi is much better against righties (25.9% K’s) and should see a righty-dominant lineup tonight now that Mike Moustakas is out of town. He’s a huge favorite, and while I don’t think he has huge upside the matchup is very good for him and I’m comfortable with him in all formats.
Top Tier: Rhys Hoskins- I’ve been riding the Rhys train for what feels like every day since the all-star break, and I’m going back to him tonight against Trevor Richards. Hoskins has been on an absolute tear posting a 56.1% hard-hit rate and 46.3% fly-ball rate over the last 14 days. Some may be scared off of the R-R matchup, but fear not, Hoskins has actually been much better in the split this season with his ISO rising to .288.
Mid Tier: Shin-Soo Choo- Choo is always cash game playable for me, especially tonight on FanDuel where he is just $3,100. He has great on-base skills (.400 OBP) and solid pop (.244 ISO) for a leadoff man and he is at the top of the Rangers lineup that just dropped 17 runs not even 24 hours ago. David Hess is as unimposing as it gets so it’s no shock to see the Rangers implied for over 6 runs once again tonight.
Low Tier: Logan Morrison- The Twins are officially tanking the rest of the season after trading Dozier/Escobar but they still provide value in DFS, especially tonight against Heath Fillmyer. LoMo has been seeing the ball well with 42%+ hard-hits and fly-balls over the last two weeks and he should be locked into the heart of this Twins order.
Tournament Stack of the Day
1. Rangers/Orioles- This is going to be the focus of the slate again and I’m fine with both sides of the game.
2. Minnesota Twins- This is the GPP play of the night for me, nobody stacks the Twins anyways but now with Dozier/Escobar gone they have nothing appealing. They are all relatively cheap allowing you to pay for pitching and Fillmyer has been dust since joining the rotation.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
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