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MLB DFS 8/5/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers have been heating up recently, and they rank eighth in the MLB in runs scored, 20th in team batting average, and 15th in OPS. They are also averaging 10.3 runs per game in this series, as well. They have looked outstanding at home, where they are hitting .256 with a .442 slugging percentage and a .786 OPS. The Rangers are also averaging 5.4 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game in Texas. They’re relatively small favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, but they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.6 runs.

The Rangers get a matchup against Yefry Ramirez, who owns a 1-4 record with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP through seven games (six starts). He has also recorded a 1.6 HR/9 and a 9.2 K/9 through 33.1 innings. Furthermore, Ramirez has struggled more on the road, although he has only seen limited starts. He’s allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .246 average with a .373 slugging percentage and a .341 wOBA. Righties are also hitting for a .212/.424/.287 line in 2018. The Rangers will likely feature plenty of ownership for the fourth consecutive game, but it is extremely risky to avoid them in cash games.

NOTE: The Cubs are going to be chalk because of the weather there, and it will be risky to avoid them. Utilizing a Cubs/Rangers stack in cash is a great strategy.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have struggled at times this season, ranking 20th in the MLB in runs scored, 27th in team batting average, and 21st in OPS. They have been a better offense at home this season, posting a .239 average with a .419 slugging percentage and a .738 OPS through 55 home games. The Phillies are averaging 4.8 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game at home, as well. They are -241 favorites in a game set at 7.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.7 runs.

Dan Straily will be taking the mound for the Miami Marlins today. Straily has featured plenty of ups and downs this season, posting a 4-5 record with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP through 17 starts. He has also allowed a 1.8 HR/9, while recording a 7.5 K/9 through 87.2 innings. He has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .261 average with a .461 slugging percentage and a .362 wOBA. He’s also allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .447 slugging percentage in 2018. The Phillies are an offense that could go overlooked because of the projected game total, but they come with tremendous upside.

 

Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor

Corey Dickerson

Dickerson has caught fire recently, hitting .375 with a .925 slugging percentage and a 1.330 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 58% hard-hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 99 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Dickerson has also posted a .540 slugging percentage and a .221 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.

Pat Valaika

Valaika is in an odd position. He is significantly better option against left-handed pitching, posting 0.072 wOBA and 0.087 ISO differentials against lefties. He’s also hitting .250 with a .375 slugging percentage and a .708 OPS over his last 10 games. Valaika also possesses a 75% fly ball rate over the last 15 days.

Justin Bour

Bour owns a 75% home run rate over his last 10 games. He has also posted 51% hard-hit and 62% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, he owns 0.12 wOBA and 0.175 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Jon Lester

Lester has been enjoying a successful season, especially at home. Through 11 home starts, Lester owns a 5-2 record with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He also features a 0.9 HR/9 with a 6.4 K/9 through 63.2 home innings. Lester has been a relatively consistent option with upside in Chicago. Lester is a -187 favorite, but this game has a projected run total of 12.5 runs today.

Lester gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking third last in team wOBA. Lester has been a dominant option against right-handed batters this season, holding them to a .228 average with a .371 slugging percentage and a .302 wOBA. The wind is a major concern in this game, but Lester still has the potential to shut down the Padres offense. He should strictly be used in GPPs tonight.

 

Hidden Gems: Value Hitters

Alex Gordon

It’s the third day in a row Gordon has made this slot, and for good reason. He’s hitting .333 with a .500 slugging percentage and a .868 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted a 37% hard-hit rate with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Gordon is also averaging 11 DK points per game over his last five games. He also dominates right-handed pitching, featuring 0.072 wOBA and 0.102 ISO differentials against righties.

Gordon gets a matchup against Ervin Santana, who has struggled against left-handed batters throughout his career. Over that span, he’s allowing lefties to hit for a .257 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .329 wOBA. Gordon is expected to hit second in the Kansas City lineup, giving him ample opportunities to score fantasy points.

Ronald Guzman

Guzman has been struggling recently, but he’s hitting .254 with a .459 slugging percentage and a .782 OPS at home this season. He owns a 40% hard-hit rate and a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well.

I have already outlined Yefry Ramirez above, so I will not do that again. Guzman is expected to hit seventh in the Rangers lineup, and he should see RBI opportunities today. He’s playing in an extremely hitter friendly stadium, and Guzman is a high upside option that can be considered in tournaments.

 

By: Justin Bales (Twitter)

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