MLB DFS 8/7/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Colorado Rockies feature a dominant offense, ranking ninth in the MLB in runs scored, 11th in team batting average, and eighth in OPS. The Rockies are hitting .281 with a .476 slugging percentage and an .820 OPS through 52 games in Colorado. They are averaging 5.2 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game at home, as well. Tonight, they are small underdogs in a game set at 11 runs, but they still feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.5 runs.
The Rockies get a matchup against Jameson Taillon, who has been enjoying a solid season. He owns an 8-8 record with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP through 22 starts. He has also held his opponents to a 0.9 HR/9, while posting an 8.4 K/9. Taillon has struggled against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .258 average with a .397 slugging percentage and a .320 wOBA. He’s allowing his opponents to hit for a .254/.354/.290 line on the road this season, as well. The Rockies feature one of the best offenses in the MLB when they are playing at home, and they make a great option tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
The Seattle Mariners offense has featured plenty of ups and downs this season, ranking 22nd in the MLB in runs scored, seventh in team batting average, and 17th in OPS. They have also looked outstanding on the road, where they’re hitting .262 with a .417 slugging percentage and a .744 OPS. They’re averaging 4.7 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game away from home, as well. The Mariners are -107 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.6 runs.
Seattle gets an elite matchup against Bartolo Colon tonight. He has struggled through 22 games (20 starts) this season, posting a 5-10 record with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.8 HR/9, while posting a 5.2 K/9 through 123.1 innings. He has struggled against everyone this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .275 average with a .562 slugging percentage and a .359 wOBA, while lefties hit for a .272/.442/.325 line in the same categories. The Mariners should feature some ownership tonight, but it’s difficult to avoid them in this matchup. They make an elite stacking option in all leagues.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Arizona Diamondbacks only rank 26th in the MLB in team batting average and 20th in OPS, but they also rank 13th in the Majors in runs scored. They have featured a better offense in Arizona, where they owns a .243 average with a .402 slugging percentage and a .727 OPS. The Diamondbacks are also averaging 4.6 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game at home. They are -162 favorites in a game set at only 7.5 runs, but they still feature an implied run total of 4.3 runs.
Nick Pivetta will be taking the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. He has struggled over his last 10 games (nine starts) with a 2-4 record, 6.17 ERA, and 1.48 WHIP. He has also allowed a 2.1 HR/9, while recording a 12.5 K/9. He has struggled mightily against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .302 average with a .480 slugging percentage and a .364 wOBA. Righties also feature a .388 slugging percentage against Pivetta this season. Arizona is a high upside offense that should go overlooked on this slate.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Calhoun continues to play at a high level, as he’s hitting .282 with a .615 slugging percentage and a .993 OPS over his last 10 games. He possesses 48% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Calhoun also possess 0.076 wOBA and 0.133 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Turner only has three games over the last 15 days, but he features 33% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over that span. He has also performed well against left-handed pitching throughout his career, possessing a .429 slugging percentage and a .157 ISO.
Guyer only sees limited at-bats, but he’s hitting .375 with a 1.000 slugging percentage and a 1.412 OPS over his last 10 games. He has also dominated left-handed pitching, recording 0.225 wOBA and 0.121 ISO differentials against lefties.
Suarez is a player that can always be considered against left-handed pitching. He owns a .707 slugging percentage and a .326 ISO against lefties this season. Suarez also owns a .330 average with a .585 slugging percentage and a .997 OPS on the road. He also featured 44% hard-hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Ohtani is a high upside option, who has been hitting the ball well recently. He owns 45% hard-hit and 54% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also features 0.174 wOBA and 0.256 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching early in his career.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Anderson has been playing at an extremely high level over his last 10 starts, posting a 3-2 record with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.3 HR/9, while recording an 8.6 K/9 over his last 55.2 innings. Anderson has scored 18+ DK points in six of his last 10 starts, as well. He’s a -192 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.6 runs.
Anderson gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. Anderson has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, holding left-handed batters to a .206 average with a .353 slugging percentage and a .298 wOBA. He has also held righties to a .227/.447/.314 line this season. The Padres feature one of the worst offenses in the MLB this season, and Anderson makes a safe option with tremendous upside for a low price tag.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Walker has caught fire recently, hitting .407 with a .556 slugging percentage and a .975 OPS over his last 10 games. He features a 42% hard-hit rate with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Walker has also been a significantly better option against right-handed pitching, as he features 0.111 wOBA and 0.084 ISO differentials against righties.
He gets a matchup against Reynaldo Lopez, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .232 average with a .407 slugging percentage and a .320 wOBA. Walker is hitting last in the Yankees lineup, but that may come as an advantage. He could see a few RBI opportunities, and he’s hitting in front of some of their best hitters. He can be considered in all leagues.
Mathis has quietly been playing well over his last 10 games, hitting .290 with a .419 slugging percentage and a .772 OPS. He has posted a dominant 50% hard-hit rate with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. His recent hot streak is important, as he has struggled at times against right-handed pitching.
I have already outlined Nick Pivetta above, so I will not do that again. Mathis is hitting eighth in the Diamondbacks lineup, which is less than ideal. He’s an extremely cheap way to get part of their offense tonight, though.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
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