MLB DFS 8/8/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have featured one of the best offenses in the MLB. Through 112 games, they rank second in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, while ranking 11th in team batting average. They have struggled at times on the road, where they are hitting .237 with a .430 slugging percentage and a .739 OPS. New York is also averaging 4.7 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game away from home. They are also -263 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving them one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.4 runs.
The Yankees get an elite matchup against Lucas Giolito, who owns a 7-8 record with a 5.97 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP through 22 starts. He has also allowed a 1.4 HR/9, while posting a 5.7 K/9 through 120.2 innings. Giolito has struggled mightily against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .268 average with a .478 slugging percentage and a .376 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .270/.465/.370 line when pitching in Chicago. The Yankees feature one of the best offenses in the Majors, and this is a matchup they should easily be able to take advantage of tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have featured plenty of ups and downs this season, ranking seventh in the MLB in runs scored, 20th in team batting average, and sixth in OPS. Los Angeles has featured a better offense on the road, as well, where they are hitting .246 with a .424 slugging percentage and a .757 OPS. The Dodgers are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game on the road, as well. They are currently -157 favorites in a game set at 7.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.2 runs.
Mike Fiers will be taking the mound for the Oakland A’s tonight. He has looked outstanding through 21 starts, recording a 7-6 record with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. His 4.81 xFIP and 4.53 SIERA suggest he has been a bit lucky this season, though. He is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .255 average with a .472 slugging percentage and a .335 wOBA, while righties are hitting for a .258/.420/.308 line. Los Angeles is far from a safe stacking option, but they come with tremendous upside in this matchup.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Duvall has been struggling a bit recently, but he still features 47% hard-hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also gets a great matchup tonight, and owns a career .470 slugging percentage and a .230 ISO against left-handed pitching. He owns a 49.3% extra-base hit rate on the season, as well.
Thames has not been hitting for the highest average over his last 10 games, but he owns a 40% home run rate over that span. He also possesses 56% hard-hit and 65% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has looked outstanding against right-handed pitching, as well, posting 0.126 wOBA and 0.169 ISO differentials.
Bellinger continues to make a high upside option, and he possesses a 44% fly ball rate over the last 15 days. He has also found plenty of success against right-handed pitching, as he has recorded a career .540 slugging percentage and a .280 ISO against righties.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Chacin has performed well this season, posting a 10-4 record with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP through 24 starts. He also owns a 0.9 HR/9 with a 7.2 K/9 through 24 innings. Chacin has also caught fire recently, holding his opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts. He has been a better pitcher in Milwaukee this season, as well. He’s a -190 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, giving his opponent an implied run total of only 3.6 runs.
Chacin gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres, who rank as an above average team in terms of strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking last one the slate in team wOBA. Chacin has also been an elite option against right-handed batters, holding them to a .179 average with a .298 slugging percentage and a .248 wOBA. He’s also holding his opponents to a .215/.330/.284 line at home this season. Chacin should feature quite a bit of ownership tonight, but for good reason.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Travis has caught fire over his last 10 games, posting a .306 average with a .500 slugging percentage and an .842 OPS over that span. He also owns a 42% hard-hit rate with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Travis is a significantly better option against left-handed pitching, as well, as he features 0.078 wOBA and 0.12 ISO differentials against lefties.
He gets a matchup against Brian Johnson tonight. Johnson has struggled against right-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .284 average with a .437 slugging percentage and a .336 wOBA. Travis is hitting second in the Blue Jays lineup, and he has been a consistent option that also features quite a bit of upside. He can be considered in all leagues.
Romine has been struggling a bit recently, but he’s hitting .256 with a .444 slugging percentage and a .756 OPS on the season. He also owns a decent 33% hard-hit rate with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has struggled at times against right-handed pitching, but he’s still in a great spot tonight.
I have already outlined Lucas Giolito above, so I will not do that again. Romine has been a relatively safe option, who also possesses quite a bit of upside this season. He’s only hitting eighth in the Yankees lineup, but he is a cheap way to get part of the Yankees offense.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
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