MLB DFS 9/1/18 Ben’s Building Blocks
Top Tier: Blake Snell (+102)– This might surprise some people to see an underdog at the top for me with other names like Clayton Kershaw on the slate, but I can’t get by Snell’s price on DraftKings. Snell has been locked in owning a 2.48 SIERA and 37.4% strikeout rate over the last 30 days. At this point in his career, I don’t see the $2,000 in salary difference between Kershaw and Snell despite his tough matchup with the Cleveland Indians. This profiles more of a GPP option given the contact-heavy nature of the Indians lineup, so I will most likely have tournament exposure here and drop down to the mid tier for cash game roster construction.
I’ve dissected Gray’s unluckiness and strong form a lot over the last two weeks in this article. He’s one of the best pitcher’s on the slate and yet, he isn’t priced like it in a smash matchup. The fact is, if he was chalk in this same scenario last week IN COORS FIELD, he’s going to be owned again in San Diego. He’s too cheap, and will probably be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate. In tournaments there’s a ton of value in fading hm, but just eat the chalk in cash games.
Bieber on the other-hand, is one of my favorite pitchers in the league. Nobody has come around to realizing how good he is despite me telling you every time he pitches. He’s young, but has impeccable control and can command all of his pitches. He rarely walks anyone, and he has a lot better swing-and-miss stuff than people realize. The Rays got absolutely shut down by Corey Kluber last night and I’m anticipating a pitchers duel this evening. At just $8,000 on DraftKings, there is plenty of upside if he is on his game and there’s been movement in Vegas towards the Tribe already today.
Low Tier: Robbie Erlin (+128)– Erlin has been strong for the Padres this season posting a 3.41 SIERA with 20.3% strikeouts and just 2.7% walks in time as a starter and out of the bullpen. He’s stretched out now and is a capable punt SP2 at home against the Colorado Rockies. He doesn’t possess huge strikeout upside, but we aren’t being asked to pay for it with a price of just $4,900 on DraftKings. It’s definitely a risk with Arenado/Story being quite the matchup for a left-handed pitcher, but this is one of the most positive pitching environments on the slate and the Rockies are horrid on the road. They rank 25th in road wRC+ and if I need the salary I’m comfortable dropping down to Erlin in all formats.
Top Tier: Matt Carpenter- The Building Blocks king returned to his throne in this article last night and he answered with a home run. Maybe it’s not the salsa, maybe it’s this article? We will never know! Regardless, Carp is my favorite play once again tonight against Luis Castillo. I believe in Castillo and I think he will be a good pitcher, but he has struggled mightily with left-handed batters this season and I don’t see that correcting over the final month of play. He has pitched to a 4.41 xFIP against lefties this season while losing ground ball ability and adding in 43.8% hard-hits allowed. It’s another great spot for the Cardinals lefties and I’m not going to get too cute.
Mid Tier: Miguel Sano- The Twins/Rangers game will be the focus of the slate once again tonight as evidenced by the 10 run O/U in Vegas once again. Some may see the R/R matchup for Sano and be less excited, but he actually has hit righties way better that lefties this season. He strikes out way too much, so he isn’t normally cash game playable but at his price of just $4,000 on DraftKings that changes for this slate.
Low Tier: Ryan O’Hearn- O’Hearn is not a household name by any stretch, but he has absolutely raked since getting called up by the Royals and he has a fantastic matchup with Dylan Bundy. Bundy has allowed the most homers in the MLB this season and it’s not close, which means we will want to target the power hitters on Kansas City. The issue is…they really don’t have much power. O’Hearn, however, is an exception as he owns over a .400 ISO against righties since his call-up. Obviously that number will regress, but he has clearly shown power and he homered last night. He’s under $4,000 on DraftKings and is a great punt play.
Stack of the Day
Boston Red Sox- This really isn’t contrarian thinking, hmmm I wan’t to stack arguably the top offense is all of baseball. Makes sense! Carlos Rodon has been a hot button play in MLB DFS recently, and I can admit, he has been good. But, just how good? None of his advanced metrics stick out to me, the only thing he is good at is managing hard-contact, he has allowed just 27.3% hard-hits this season. He also owns a .194 BABIP, yes he has the ability to run good when he can manage hard-contact like he does, but he has clearly been getting lucky and now has a nightmare matchup with this Red Sox offense. I definitely could see the Red Sox going under-owned tonight and I want as much exposure as I can get in GPPs to the top of the lineup.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
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