Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Colorado Rockies have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking 11th in the MLB in runs scored, eighth in team batting average, and ninth in OPS. They’re at their best Colorado, though, where they own a .278 average with a .479 slugging percentage and an .819 OPS. The Rockies are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game in Colorado, as well. They are -140 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.5 runs.
The Rockies get a matchup against Zack Godley, who has struggled on the road this season. Through 15 road starts, he owns an 8-4 record with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. He has held his opponents to a 0.8 HR/9, while recording a 9.0 K/9 through 82 road innings, as well. He has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .249 average with a .369 slugging percentage and a .320 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .258/.377/.325 line on the road this season. Godley has struggled in two starts against the Colorado Rockies this season, and tonight should be no different. Colorado makes one of the safest stacking options on the slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have looked outstanding offensively this season, ranking second in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, while also ranking 15th in team batting average. They have struggled at times on the road, but they are still hitting .236 with a .421 slugging percentage and a .731 OPS through 71 road games. New York is also averaging 4.7 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game away from home. They are -155 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 4.8 runs.
New York gets a matchup against Kyle Gibson tonight. Through 12 home starts, he owns a 3-5 record with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.1 HR/9 with an 8.4 K/9 through 71.2 innings in Minnesota this season. Gibson has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to record a .248 average with a .360 slugging percentage and a .303 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to record a .254/.407/.321 line at home this season. Furthermore, Gibson has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .404 slugging percentage this season. New York makes a high upside stacking option on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Philadelphia Phillies only rank 21st in the MLB in runs scored, 28th in team batting average, and 22nd in OPS through 142 games. They are at their best at home, though, where they are hitting .239 with a .413 slugging percentage and a .727 OPS. The Phillies are averaging 4.6 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game in Philadelphia, as well. Tonight, they are -138 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs. Philadelphia owns an implied run total of 4.6 runs.
Erick Fedde will be taking the mound for the Washington Nationals. Fedde has struggled through seven starts this season, recording a 1-3 record with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.6 HR/9 with a 7.1 K/9 through 33 innings. Fedde has struggled more against right-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .324 average with a .548 slugging percentage and a .384 wOBA. He’s also allowing lefties to hit for a .298/.491/.368 line this season. The Phillies are a team that generally goes overlooked, but they are playing in a hitter friendly stadium, and come with tremendous upside.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Perez is only hitting .216 over his last 10 games, but he owns five extra-base hits (three home runs) in those games, as well. He features 84% hard-hit and 61% fly ball rates with a 102 mph exit velocity over his last four games. Perez also owns a .439 slugging percentage and a .212 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Beltre has performed well against right-handed pitching in his career, recording a .479 slugging percentage and a .194 ISO against righties. He’s also hitting .316 with five home runs over his last 10 games. Beltre owns 50% hard-hit and 55% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well.
Garcia has been playing well, featuring a .316 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .925 OPS over his last 10 games. He possesses 46% hard-hit and 34% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Garcia has found success against right-handed pitching this season, recording a .436 slugging percentage and a .203 ISO.
Dozier is hitting .317 with a .634 slugging percentage and a .960 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 58% hard-hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Dozier has been a much more powerful option against right-handed pitching, featuring a 0.102 ISO differential against righties.
Longoria can always be considered against left-handed pitching, as he owns a .515 slugging percentage and a .242 ISO against lefties. He has also been playing well over the last 15 days, recording 45% hard-hit and 37% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over that span.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Junis has been heating up over his last 10 starts, recording a 3-3 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over that span. He also owns a 0.8 HR/9 with an 8.6 K/9 over his last 57.2 innings. Junis has scored 30 and 32.6 DK points in his last two games, as well, while averaging 22.4 DK points per game over his last six starts. Junis is a -120 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.1 runs.
Junis gets a great matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as an average offense in team wOBA. Junis has performed well against right-handed batters this season, holding them to a .239 average with a .446 slugging percentage and a .316 wOBA. He’s a safe option that also comes with tremendous upside in this matchup tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
d’Arnaud has been struggling over his last 10 games, but he owns a 40% fly ball rate with a 93 mph exit velocity over his last four games. He has also been a dominant option against left-handed pitching, featuring 0.129 wOBA and 0.174 ISO differentials against lefties.
d’Arnaud gets a matchup against Sean Newcomb, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .238 average with a .356 slugging percentage and a .306 wOBA. Most importantly, d’Arnaud is expected to lead off for the Giants. He could see extra at-bats tonight, adding to his value.
Choi has been on fire recently, hitting .333 with a .667 slugging percentage and a 1.114 OPS over his last 10 games. He also possesses 37% hard-hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over that span. He owns 0.259 wOBA and 0.257 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well.
Choi gets a tough matchup against Corey Kluber, but he’s allowing his opponents to hit for a .243 average with a .406 slugging percentage and a .293 wOBA on the road this season. Choi is hitting third in the Rays lineup, and he has been playing well enough to be considered in all leagues, even in a tough matchup.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)