MLB DFS 9/11/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Arizona Diamondbacks have seen mixed offensive results this season, ranking 17th in the MLB in runs scored, 27th in team batting average, and 21st in OPS. They have struggled at times on the road, where they own a .230 average with a .399 slugging percentage and a .701 OPS. Arizona is also averaging 4.2 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game away from home. They are currently -119 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.5 runs tonight.
The Diamondbacks get a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela, who owns a 4-5 record with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP through 19 games (nine starts). He has also posted a 0.9 HR/9 with a 6.9 K/9 through 67.2 innings. Senzatela has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .273 average with a .491 slugging percentage and a .350 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .323/.523/.383 line in Colorado in 2018. The Diamondbacks have scored six runs in eight innings against Senzatela this season, as well. They make up one of the safest stacking option on this slate tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have featured the best offense in the MLB this season, ranking first in the Majors in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS through 144 games. They have been better at home, but still feature a .255 average with a .425 slugging percentage and a .755 OPS on the road. Boston is averaging 5.1 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game away from home, as well. The Red Sox are -350 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.7 runs.
Boston gets a matchup against Ryan Borucki tonight. He has struggled through 13 starts with a 3-4 record, 4.39 ERA, and 1.48 WHIP. He has held his opponents to a 0.7 HR/9, while recording a 5.8 K/9 through 69.2 innings. He has struggled against everyone this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .281 average with a .432 slugging percentage and a .334 wOBA, while lefties own a .279/.382/.307 line against him. The Red Sox feature one of the best offenses in the MLB, even when they are playing on the road. They should feature some ownership tonight, but they are a high upside stacking option.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Oakland A’s have found quite a bit of success this season, ranking fifth in the MLB in runs scored, 13th in team batting average, and fourth in OPS. They have been at their best on the road, where they are hitting .265 with a .471 slugging percentage and an .804 OPS. They’re also averaging 5.5 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game away from home this season. The A’s are -170 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.2 runs.
Alex Cobb will be taking the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight. He has struggled at times this season, posting a 5-15 record with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP through 26 starts. He has allowed a 1.4 HR/9, while recording a 6.0 K/9 through 150.1 innings. Cobb has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .291 average with a .528 slugging percentage and a .363 wOBA this season. He’s also allowing his opponents to record a .283/.528/.363 line in Baltimore. The A’s should fly under the radar tonight, but they come with as much upside as any offense on this slate.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Beltre continues to play at a high level, recording a .297 average with five home runs over his last 10 games. He has posted 51% hard-hit and 54% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also been a better option against right-handed pitching, featuring 0.031 wOBA and 0.091 ISO differentials against righties.
Choi has been looked outstanding recently, hitting .300 with a .733 slugging percentage and a 1.154 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 41% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over that span, as well. Choi has also posted a .559 slugging percentage and a .265 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
O’Hearn has dominated right-handed pitching, recording 0.458 wOBA and 0.375 ISO differentials against righties. He has also caught fire recently, hitting .324 with a .765 slugging percentage and a 1.190 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 55% hard-hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over that span, as well.
Ohtani has recorded a .681 slugging percentage and a .357 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He is also hitting .433 with a .967 slugging percentage and a 1.494 OPS over his last 10 games. Furthermore, 12 of Ohtani’s 19 home runs have come at home this season.
Lowe only has limited at-bats this season, but he’s hitting .310 with a .724 slugging percentage and a 1.079 OPS over his last 10 games. He also possesses 39% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Lowe has also recorded a .468 slugging percentage and a .210 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Keller has quietly been throwing well 38 games (17 starts this season). Overall, he owns a 7-6 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He has also held his opponents to an elite 0.5 HR/9 with a 6.1 K/9 through 120.1 innings. He’s averaging 17.1 DK points per game over his last nine starts, as well. Keller is a -133 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.2 runs.
He gets a great matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as an average offense in team wOBA. He has performed well against right-handed batters, holding them to a .247 average with a .332 slugging percentage and a .273 wOBA. Keller is also holding his opponents to a .224/.317/.274 line in Kansas City this season. He can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Chirinos has been struggling to find success over his last 10 games, but he does own 50% hard-hit and 85% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also posted a .415 slugging percentage and a .206 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Chirinos technically gets a matchup against Jim Johnson, but it will be a bullpen game for the Los Angeles Angels. Chirinos is hitting is only hitting eighth in the Rangers lineup, but he’s a cheap player that comes with tremendous upside. He should strictly be used in tournaments on this slate, though.
Bauers is only hitting .111 over his last 10 games, but he owns two extra-base hits and three RBIs in those games. He also features 42% hard-hit and 31% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Bauers has been a better option against right-handed pitching, recording 0.023 wOBA and 0.039 ISO differentials against righties.
He gets a matchup against Shane Bieber, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .318 average with a .570 slugging percentage and a .395 wOBA this season. Similarly to Chirinos, Bauers is only expected to hit eighth in the Rays lineup. He comes with more than enough upside to be used in tournaments, though.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)