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MLB DFS 9/15/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have struggled at times offensively this season, ranking 22nd in the MLB in runs scored, 26th in team batting average, and 20th in OPS. The Phillies have been at their best in Philadelphia, as well, hitting .241 with a .419 slugging percentage and a .735 OPS at home. They are also averaging 4.7 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game at home this season. Philadelphia is a -200 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.1 runs tonight.

The Phillies get a matchup against Jarlin Garcia, who owns a 2-2 record with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP through 23 games (six starts). He has allowed a 2.3 HR/9 with a 5.8 K/9 through 62.1 innings this season, as well. Garcia has struggled more against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .258 average with a .523 slugging percentage and a .355 wOBA. He’s also allowing righties to hit for a .237/.485/.335 line this season. Furthermore, Garcia is allowing his opponents to hit for a .281/.602/.400 line on the road this season. The Phillies are coming off of a massive game in a plus matchup, and that should be the case again tonight.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox have struggled to produce offensively this season, ranking only 23rd in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, while also ranking 21st in team batting average through 147 games. The White Sox are hitting .238 with a .410 slugging percentage and a .708 OPS away from home this season. They are averaging 4.3 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game on the road this season. The White Sox are -125 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 4.8 runs.

Yefry Ramirez will be taking the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight. He has been struggling over his last 10 games (six starts), recording a 1-2 record with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP over that span. He also owns 1.4 HR/9 with an 8.8 K/9 over the last 31.2 innings. He has struggled against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .240 average with a .461 slugging percentage and a .316 wOBA. He’s also allowing lefties to hit for a .261/.382/.366 line this season. The White Sox come with plenty of risk, but they are a high upside option on a smaller slate.

 

Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor

Aaron Altherr

Altherr has been heating up recently, hitting .294 with a .706 slugging percentage and a 1.000 OPS over his last 10 games. He features 87% hard-hit and 37% fly ball rates and a 100 mph exit velocity over his last four games, as well. Altherr has also been at his best against left-handed pitching.

Travis Shaw

Shaw homered for us last night, and I’m going back to the well tonight. He has dominated right-handed pitching, as he owns 0.099 wOBA and 0.183 ISO differentials against righties. He has posted 47% hard-hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over his last 10 games, as well.

Trevor Story

Story has posted a .695 slugging percentage and a .365 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He has also been playing well recently, recording 47% hard-hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Story has also hit five home runs over his last 10 games.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Vincent Velasquez

Velasquez has had plenty of ups and downs this season, recording a 9-11 record with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP through 28 games (27 starts). He has held his opponents to a 1.0 HR/9 with a 9.9 K/9 through 138 innings, as well. He has flashed 30+ DK points upside this season, as well. Velasquez is a -196 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 3.5 runs.

He gets a matchup against the Miami Marlins, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking third last in team wOBA. Velasquez has been significantly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .199 average with a .308 slugging percentage and a .269 wOBA. He’s holding his opponents to a .223/.429/.321 line at home this season, as well. Velasquez is a player that can be considered in all leagues on this slate.

 

Hidden Gems: Value Hitters

Welington Castillo

Castillo is only hitting .184 over his last 10 games, but his peripherals suggest he will find success sooner rather than later. He owns 38% hard-hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Castillo has been a better option against right-handed pitching, as he features 0.038 wOBA and 0.07 ISO differentials against righties.

I have already outlined Yefry Ramirez, so I will not do that again. He’s hitting sixth in the White Sox lineup, and Castillo comes with quite a bit of upside for his position. He’s a player that should strictly be used in tournaments tonight.

Jose Bautista

Bautista is hitting .250 with a .550 slugging percentage and an .898 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s also hitting over .300 in limited games in Philadelphia this season. Bautista features 40% hard-hit and 60% fly ball rates with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. He has also been a more consistent option against left-handed pitching, recording a 0.017 wOBA differential against lefties.

I have already outlined Jarlin Garcia above, so I will not do that again. Bautista is hitting third in the Phillies lineup, and he has played well when starting. He’s a player that can be considered in all leagues because of the plus matchup tonight.

 

By: Justin Bales (Twitter)

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