Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Cleveland Indians have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking third in the MLB in runs scored, seventh in team batting average, fifth in OPS. They have been an elite offense at home, as well, where they are hitting .268 with a .448 slugging percentage and a .789 OPS. The Indians are also averaging 5.5 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game in Cleveland. The Indians are -172 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.2 runs tonight.
The Indians get a matchup against Matt Boyd, who owns a 3-9 record with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP through 15 road starts. He has also allowed a 1.5 HR/9 with an 8.7 K/9 through 82.2 road innings. Boyd has struggled more against right-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .217 average with a .373 slugging percentage and a .290 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .245/.433/.323 line on the road. Boyd has been heating up a bit recently, but he has allowed 16 earned runs in his last 23.2 road innings. The Indians have found plenty of success against left-handed pitching this season, and they should be able to find tremendous success in the matchup tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees own one of the best offenses in the MLB this season. Through 146 games, they rank second in the league in runs scored and OPS, while also ranking 15th in team batting average. They have featured a dominant offense in New York, posting a .264 average with a .475 slugging percentage and an .820 OPS through 72 home games. The Yankees are averaging 5.5 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game at home, as well. They are a -270 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.7 runs.
New York gets a matchup against Marco Estrada tonight. He has struggled over his last 10 starts, recording a 3-4 record with a 6.85 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP over that span. He has allowed a 2.4 HR/9 with a 5.3 K/9 over his last 46 innings, as well. Estrada has struggled against right-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .299 average with a .585 slugging percentage and a .395 wOBA. He’s also allowing lefties to hit for a .224/.440/.310 line this season. New York has found success against Estrada earlier this season, and tonight should be no different.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Detroit Tigers have struggled offensively this season, ranking only 25th in runs scored, 22nd in team batting average, and 27th in OPS. They have also struggled at times on the road, where they are hitting .235 with a .375 slugging percentage a .669 OPS. The Tigers are averaging 3.7 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game away from home, as well. They are massive underdogs in a game set at 9 runs tonight, and they only feature an implied run total of 3.9 runs.
Josh Tomlin will be taking the mound for the Cleveland Indians. He has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB, recording a 1-5 record with a 6.63 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP through 28 games (six starts). He has also allowed a 3.6 HR/9, while posting a 5.7 K/9 through 55.2 innings. He has struggled against everyone this season, allowing left-handed batters hit for a .371 average with a .743 slugging percentage and a .482 wOBA, while righties are hitting for a .254/.559/.349 line against Tomlin in 2018. Detroit doesn’t feature an elite offense, but they come with plenty of upside in this matchup.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Beltre has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, but he owns a .517 slugging percentage and a .214 ISO against lefties in his career. He has recorded 50% hard-hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Beltre also owns four home runs over his last eight games.
Grichuk has been playing well recently, posting 56% hard-hit and 60% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also performed well against right-handed pitching, featuring 0.058 wOBA and 0.147 ISO differentials against righties. Grichuk will be playing in a hitter friendly stadium tonight, as well.
Happ has been struggling on paper recently, but he owns 50% hard-hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Happ has also found success against right-handed pitching throughout his career, recording a .482 slugging percentage and a .241 ISO against righties since joining the MLB.
Shaw has been a dominant option against right-handed pitching, recording 0.096 wOBA and 0.178 ISO differentials against righties. Similarly to Happ, he has been struggling recently, but owns 47% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Choi has caught fire recently, hitting .353 with an .824 slugging percentage and a 1.263 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 44% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Choi has also recorded a .570 slugging percentage and a .275 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Keuchel has been heating up a bit recently, posting a 4-2 record with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over his last 10 starts. He has also held his opponents to a 0.7 HR/9, while recording a 6.4 K/9 over his last 63.1 innings. Keuchel has allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of his last 10 starts, as well. He is a -190 favorite in a game set at only 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.4 runs tonight.
Keuchel gets a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who rank as an average offense in terms of strikeouts per at-bat on this slate. He has performed well against left-handed batters this season, holding them to a .264 average with a .378 slugging percentage and a .296 wOBA. Arizona has at struggled on the road, and Keuchel has been at his best in Houston this season. He’s a cheap option that can be considered in all leagues on the slate tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Dozier has been playing at a high level over his last 10 games, hitting .268 with a .537 slugging percentage and an .839 OPS. He also owns seven extra-base hits and six RBIs over that span. Dozier has also posted a 62% hard-hit rate with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He features a 0.112 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, as well.
Dozier gets a matchup against Jose Berrios, who has been a reverse splits pitcher this season. He’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .231 average with a .376 slugging percentage and a .287 wOBA. Dozier is hitting fourth in the Royals lineup, and he has been playing well enough to be considered in all leagues.
Adduci has found some success recently, hitting .265 with a .353 slugging percentage and a .618 OPS over his last 10 games. He has also found plenty of success on the road this season, where he’s hitting for a .333/.486/.829 line. Adduci has dominated right-handed pitching, as he owns 0.212 wOBA and 0.136 ISO differentials against righties.
I have already outlined Josh Tomlin above, so I will not do that again. Adduci is hitting fifth in the Tigers lineup, and he comes with tremendous upside. He’s a player that is best suited for tournaments on this slate.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)