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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (4/28)


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Pitching

last updated (ET): 4/28 5:01 PM

Tyler Glasnow- Glasnow has been special this season. Building off of his terrific 2020 campaign, Glasnow looks just as good as he did last season. Currently rated in the top 10% in nearly every single advanced pitching metric, Glasnow’s 39% K rate is unmatched on this slate. The only way you get away with fading Glasnow is if the A’s lineup continues to stay hot. Glasnow has added a new slider this season and he has had success with it early on. He has nearly 40 inches of a vertical drop of his slider, that’s insane. The A’s have been on fire, Matt Olson in particular. I won’t shy away from investing in Glasnow, I think we have elite talent here and we should feel safe with him in any matchup.

Carlos Rodon- Rodon has not slowed down after his near-perfect game. I have been very impressed with Rodon’s ability to get through games even when he doesn’t have his best stuff. This is a matchup-based play. There are always a few offenses every season that we want to target with arms and the Tigers are one of them. Not a lot of talent in this outside of Baddoo and this is a difficult L/L matchup today for him. You can safely play Rodon, I still would be prioritizing Glasnow over him.

Alex Wood- The biggest concern for Wood is always his depth. They showed a willingness to stretch him out in his last start. Wood is my preferred SP2 after we saw him get up to 97 pitches in his last outing. The Rockies lineup really only has one threat versus lefty handed pitching and that’s Trevor Story. If Wood is able to navigate the superstar shortstop, he can see a lot of success. The Rockies are always on our radar as a team to attack when they are away from Coors. I expect Wood to be popular tomorrow, but for good reason.

Other GPP targets: D. German, A. Cobb,  G. Marquez

 

MLB Top Batters

 

Batters

C

Buster Posey- Posey was our hero in the DFS Karma discord the other night. His explosive performance landed #KarmaNation in the green. Posey is back in the middle of the order for the Giants, This is not a very strong catcher slate. Posey is the one guy I feel comfortable roster in cash games.

Carson Kelly- Kelly has quietly been one of the best hitting catchers in baseball over the last two weeks. He has shown power and consistency, I specifically like to target him versus left-handed pitching. Kelly hits near the bottom of the order, but as I said above, this is a weak catcher slate.

1B

Vlad Gurrerro Jr./Rowdy Tellez- One expensive and one cheap option from the same team! Toronto will be a popular stack today playing in the small AA ballpark. They get an elite matchup versus Erick Fedde. Tellez could potentially hit in the middle of the order which would make him extremely appealing. Vlad hit a grand slam tonight off of Max Scherzer, we may see him go on a nice little run here, and I want to be involved.

Brandon Belt- It’s not very often that you get a clean-up hitter under 3k on DraftKings. I actually don’t think Belt gets a ton of buzz tomorrow. Belt could be a key piece if we are looking to prioritize Glasnow and another high-priced arm.

2B

DJ LeMahieu- The Yankees finally broke out yesterday. DJ makes this Yankees offense go. He sets the tone and puts pressure on the Pitcher by consistently getting on base in front of guys like Judge and Stanton. The Yankees get another soft matchup vs a very bad Orioles starter. Look for the Yankees to be popular again, I will be invested in them today.

Jose Altuve- Feels similar to yesterday where I am suggesting the Astros and Yankees. Altuve will look to get things going for the Astros vs Justin Dunn who has massive control issues. Altuve will be able to get on base tomorrow with ease versus Dunn. Altuve is one of the more disciplined hitters in baseball, so having control issues does not bold well vs Jose.

3B

Anthony Rendon- Rendon just got back into the lineup for the Angels and he is currently going completely overlooked, Dane Dunning was hit around in his last outing and I see him struggling with the Angels dangerous lineup in this spot.

Cavan Biggio- Biggio will play a crucial role in the Blue Jays stack tomorrow. He started extremely cold at the plate but will look to get back on track in this plus matchup. He has had some multiple hit games over the past week, which is an encouraging development.

Alex Bregman- Will work counts and make life difficult for Dunn. Bregman is one of the better one-off plays on the slate, I am interested in a Houston stack if the ownership on them is held in check. The Yankees will be the most popular stack, but as we have seen they can easily let everyone down.

Manny Machado- The Padres are normally used more as one-offs with Tatis and Machado. As one of the few offenses with a team total over 5, it makes a lot of sense to invest in the Padres today. Taylor Widener has a difficult matchup and I expect the Padres to do some damage.

SS

Gleyber Torres- Torres was left out of my Yankee stack last night, but I am looking to get back in on the Orioles killer today. I already discussed that the Orioles are rolling out a minor league arm to face a Yankees lineup that is ready to get back on track.

Fernando Tatis- Incredible weekend series versus the Dodgers. Tatis is the hottest hitter on the planet. Not only does Tatis possess the power we are looking for. Despite the should injury, he is still showing a willingness to steal basis.

OF

Yankees OF- Stanton and Judge, all these guys do is pick on poor pitching. They are both players that will always see a ton of success when a pitcher can’t miss bats. Stanton is hitting some of the hardest hit baseballs I have ever seen. When either of these guys connects with a baseball, it will go a long way. Judge is currently questionable, so we will need to monitor his status.

Astros OF- The Astros lefties are most certainly in play. Dunn has struggled with left-handed bats and Yordan Alvarez is going to be one of the more feared hitters in baseball for years to come. He possess massive, double homerun, upside.

Angels OF- The Angels will have another game in Arlington today. Mike Trout has gone pretty under owned due to high price tag. Whenever I can get down on a low owned Trout, I am in. Ohtani has been extremely impressive at the plate this season, he was already launched 7 homeruns, and I don’t see it going anywhere. The Angels have two of the top 6/7 hitters in the baseball right now.

Manuel Margot- Margot is the cheap OF option that will allow you to fit in stacks like Toronto/New York. Margot has a very unique skill set and looks to have won the everyday job for the Rays. For a power hitter in the middle of the order, Margot has sneaky stolen base upside that does not get talked about enough. As of right now, he’s one of my favorite plays under 3k.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams
“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)
“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

 

last updated (ET): 4/28 5:02 PM

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo homeruns, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

The most popular stack today, will also likely be the stack I go to today. The Yankees worked out for me last night in a big way. The most appealing part about the Yankees stack, is the price of the left side of their infield and middle of their order bats. Urshela and Gleyber Torres are just too cheap on DraftKings today. The Yankees have let us down a lot to start the year, but it’s a beautiful day in Baltimore for a hitters park. I will be invested in the Yankees heavily today.

Last night, Vlad and the Blue Jays lit up Max Scherzer. The box score watchers and team total stackers will be in lock step today. It’s difficult to argue against the Blue Jays in this spot. The field dimensions and weather in Dunedin are a joke. It doesn’t matter who’s pitching in this park, they can get lit up. When we have a pitcher like Fedde pitching in this minor league stadium, it is a spot we need exposure to.

There are a few expensive stacks that ownership will be spread out on. I think these are the right path to attack if you’re playing SE or 3 max tournaments! HOU, LAA, and SD. As I wrote in my player breakdowns, some of these guys are in elite spots for these respective teams. I support stacking the main pieces of all of these teams.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

HOU – Altuve/Bregman/Tucker/Gurriel/Straw (Batting Order: 1-3-4-5-8)

SD – Tatis/Grisham/Machado/Cronenworth/Profar (Batting Order: 1-2-3-6-7)

TOR – Springer/Biggio/Guerrero Jr./Grichuk/Jansen (Batting Order: 1-2-4-5-9)

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

HOU – Brantley/Bregman/Tucker (Batting Order: 2-3-4)

CWS – Anderson/Eaton/Garcia (Batting Order: 1-2-8)

WAS – Turner/Harrison/Castro (Batting Order: 1-2-4)

 

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