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Ronnie’s Run Down 8/10/18

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Welcome to Ronnie’s Run Down! This column looks at some fascinating matchups and facts that might pique the interest of the reader as that day’s games are reviewed. This is just my attempt at creating come compelling thought on any given day. There are nine innings in baseball, and nine points in my daily run down.

 

  1. In his last 10 games Aledmys Diaz has 5 home runs in just 38 PA, helping him to an even .500 ISO. He only sports a 5.3% strikeout rate in that time, with a fairly low .241 BABIP. He leads all Blue Jays in that time with 10 wRC. Today Toronto hosts Tampa Bay and lefty Blake Snell. Diaz has a .220 ISO on the season versus left handed pitching.
  2. Rougned Odor is leading the Major Leagues with 10.2 wRAA in the last two weeks. He’s also leading with a .540 ISO thanks to a 48.8% HC. Odor faces the Yankees Masahiro Tanaka in tonight’s matchup. Tanaka’s most used pitches are his slider and splitter. Odor ranks above average against both pitches with a 1.9 wFS and a 1.2 wSL.
  3. Zack Wheeler’s fastball has been worth 11.3 wRAA this season, that’s the 5th best fastball in the NL. He throws the pitch 57.7% of the time, 3rd most in the NL. He takes the hill today against the Marlins on the road in Miami. The Marlins have arguably the worst offense in the Majors, they rank dead last with -106.0 oRAA.
  4. David Peralta is mashing right now. In his last 10 games he’s hitting .455/.489/.773 with 239 wRC+ and a .318 ISO. He’s making 54.1% HC with a 27.0% LD and a 42.9% HR/FB. Tonight he Anthony DeSclafani of the Cincinnati Reds. DeSclafani has a 4.39 SIERA on the season and opposing hitters have a 44.1% HC over his last 4 starts.
  5. Sean Manaea throws his fastball 53.9% of the time, 6th most in the AL. It’s a good thing he owns the 7th best fastball in the AL worth 9.8 wFA. Manaea is only giving up 31.7% HC in his last 6 starts, just better than league average. Today he faces and Angels team that is making 30.3% HC in their last 6 games.
  6. The Giants Austin Slater is making the best HC in NL in the last 2 weeks at 57.9%. He’s played 11 games in that time with a 31.6% LD while making 0.0% SC. HIs timing seems dead on, hitting 47.4% of his balls in play up the middle.
  7. Nelson Cruz is dropping bombs in the second half of this season. Just in his last 13 games he’s hit 8 home runs with a .490 ISO. He’s making a healthy 48.8% HC in that time, and he has a 41.5% FB. That combo has lead to a very high 47.1% HR/FB. He has a seemingly tough matchup tonight against Gerrit Cole of the Houston Astros. Cole is killing it this season with a 12.42 K/9 and a 2.76 SIERA. There is one chink in the armor that Cruz can use to his advantage. Cole has a 43.0% FB, so if Cruz can get good wood on one, he can take it deep.
  8. Kevin Gausman needs to stop already with the fastballs. He has the 4th worst fourseamer in the game at -9.8%. He insists on throwing a ton of these meatballs, he ranks 4th in the Majors with a 58.5% usage. He should ramp up the splitters since he has the highest ranked splitter in the league in terms of weighted runs (3.3). He faces a Brewers team that ranks 2nd in the NL with a 38.5% HC.
  9. Eric Hosmer leads NL with 350 outs made. I wrote a story about him last winter where I detailed his inconsistency0 as a hitter and that any team willing to sign him to a 7+ years $120MM+ deal is not very analytically minded. He has never had consecutive seasons of 1+ WAR ever in his career, and he’s on pace to continue that streak as he’s current at -0.6 fWAR. On the year he has a 93 wRC+ and a .304 wOBA with career highs in strikeout rate (21.9%) and GB (61.6%). This is why the Padres have only had one winning season since 2007. Way to keep the status quo A.J. Preller.

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