We’re starting to heat up with the props, as we’ve hit a few articles in a row at this point. Bo Bichette easily cleared 1.5 total bases with an early-game home run for the Toronto Blue Jays. Daniel Lynch was a much sweatier option, as he gave up 6 hits later in the game to hit the over. Ultimately, we cashed another MLB MKF play, and we’re sticking with the same sport and site again tonight. In this article, you’ll find my favorite MKF play for the Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros game.
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Prop Pick – Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
Justin Verlander over 5.5 strikeouts
There are props that you have to put a ton of time into and find small edges. There are also props that fall into your lap. This is the latter, although I’m not sure how else MKF could set these numbers.
Verlander’s looked outstanding this season, although his K/9 sits at only 8.5 through 10 starts. He’s posted a 25.3% strikeout rate to go along with 10.8% swinging-strike and 25.4% CSW rates. It’s possible that his strikeout rate doesn’t increase this season, but that shouldn’t be an issue for this prop.
Verlander’s posted 6+ strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts. He’s locked into a high pitch count for the Houston Astros, and that allows him to throw deep into games when he’s throwing well.
Verlander gets a solid matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who are an average offense in terms of strikeouts against right-handed pitching this season. They aren’t an offense that I’m scared of at this point, and this total is set too low for Houston’s ace.
Verlander currently sits at -180 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to record 6 or more strikeouts tonight.
Chris Flexen under 3.5 strikeouts
Flexen’s struggled throughout the season, and there’s very little reason to believe the Astros won’t get to him tonight. He enters this game with a 6.5 K/9 through 10 starts. He owns 16.7% strikeout, 9.2% swinging-strike, and 22.9% CSW rates in 2022 as well.
This play isn’t so much about pure strikeouts, though. Flexen’s posted a ridiculous 11.1% barrel rate this season. He also owns only a 12.8% soft-hit rate to go along with his 34.4% hard-hit rate. There are virtually no metrics suggesting he’s throwing well, and Houston boasts one of the highest upside offenses in the MLB.
As if that isn’t enough, Houston strikes out at one of the lowest rates in the MLB against right-handed pitching. Furthermore, they’re striking out at the second-lowest rate in the league over the last 14 days. I don’t expect Flexen to find success in this game, and any success he does find will come via his fielders rather than strikeouts.
Flexen owns -145 odds on DraftKings on under 3.5 strikeouts tonight.
Bet Justin Verlander “more than” 5.5 strikeouts and Chris Flexen “less than” 3.5 strikeouts to 3x your buy-in