The NBA Playoffs continue to be one of the most frustrating sports events to bet. After our bet had been made yesterday, the Boston Celtics ruled out Al Horford and Marcus Smart, who were both expected to play. This allowed Jayson Tatum to take on a larger role and go over his total. Jimmy Butler also posted 41 points in a ridiculous first game of the series. We’re switching over to MLB on PrizePicks for the play tonight. Below, you’ll find my favorite bets for the St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets game.
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2/2 Power Play – St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets
Max Scherzer over 18.5 pitching outs
This is a relatively simple play because I’m really focusing on the odds. Scherzer is currently -150 to go over 20.5 outs on DraftKings. Essentially, they’re betting he throws 7 innings, and I tend to agree.
Scherzer’s thrown 94 or more pitches and faced 22 or more batters in each of his last 5 starts. Although he’s only thrown more than 6.1 innings in 2 of those 5 starts, the workload is there for him to find success.
He gets an elite matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals who rank as a below-average offense against right-handed pitching this season. The key to this play is that St. Louis doesn’t strike out at an overly high rate against right-handed pitching. They also don’t walk at a high rate. Essentially, they put the ball in play, although they don’t generally find success with it.
Scherzer looks comfortable for the Mets, and he should continue to have an extremely long leash. I’m expecting him to throw 7 solid innings in this game, although he only needs 6.1 to hit the over, giving us some room for error.
As you can tell, I love Scherzer above, and I expect him to slow down the St. Louis offense. They rank third in the MLB in runs scored in the first inning, but their total drops drastically on the road.
The Mets are more of a concern in my opinion. They rank 10th in runs scored in the first innings, and it’s identical on the road and at home.
Jordan Hicks is taking the mound for St. Louis, and there is one key to him pitching. He throws his sinker roughly 65% of the time with his slider coming in around 27% of the time. Those are more or less his two pitches, which results in an extremely high ground ball rate.
Hicks has never struggled with home runs, and I don’t believe he will in this game. If New York is going to score, they need to string hits together, which is even more difficult when Hicks has the ability to get a ground ball at any time. It’s a good spot for the under in the first for this game.
Bet Max Scherzer over 18.5 pitching outs and Cardinals/Mets NRFI to win 3x