We’re coming off of a tough loss in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. Robert Williams hit his points over in the first half of the game. Stephen Curry recorded only 2 assists at halftime, but he ended the game with 8 assists. His dominant second half put him easily over his total of 5. It’s always tough when that type of thing happens, but we’re sticking on PrizePicks and shifting to MLB tonight. Below, you’ll find my favorite bets on Trevor Rogers and Chris Bassitt.
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2/2 Power Play – Trevor Rogers and Chris Bassitt
Trevor Rogers under 5.5 strikeouts
Rogers features one of the weirdest lines I’ve seen recently. Even odder, it’s basically even on the sports books. The simplest way to put this is that it makes literally no sense.
Rogers has recorded 6+ strikeouts in only 1 of his 11 starts (9.1%) this season. Conversely, he’s hit under 5 (giving a 1 strikeout buffer) in 8 of his 11 starts (72.7%).
It doesn’t look like these numbers are going to get better. His strikeout rate dipped drastically from his career but so did all of his predictors. Rogers owns a 10.1% swinging-strike rate, which is the lowest of his career by nearly 3%. Oddly enough, his pitch mix hasn’t changed much, but he just isn’t missing bats or throwing with control this season.
This is also an awful matchup. Rogers struggles on the road, posting a 15.2% strikeout rate outside of Miami this season. He’ll face off against the Philadelphia Phillies, who have strikeouts available to lefties but also hit them at one of the best rates in the MLB.
When you look at the game log, only 2 of the last 12 left-handed starting pitchers have recorded 6+ strikeouts against them. Generally, lefties haven’t thrown deep into games against them, and when they do, it doesn’t matter all that much.
Based on all of this information, I see no reason why Rogers should be heavily favored to hit the under on this play.
Chris Bassitt over 5.5 strikeouts
Bassitt’s seemingly set at 5.5 strikeouts every time he pitches, and we’ve taken advantage of this several times already this season. He’s thrown well with 25.3% strikeout, 10.2% swinging-strike, and 29.8% CSW rates this season. He’s a pitcher that generally gets ahead in the count, giving him ample opportunities to record strikeouts.
Bassitt recorded 9 of his 12 starts (75%) this season. After struggling in a few games, he’s now recorded 6+ strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts. He’s projected to throw 6 innings in this game, which is generally on par with what he’s done throughout the season.
Bassitt gets a solid matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. They’re striking out at the 10th-highest rate in the MLB over the last 14 days. They’re also striking out at the eighth-highest rate in the MLB against right-handed pitching.
There will be plenty of opportunities for Bassitt to record strikeouts in this game, and 5.5 is set a bit too low.
Bet Trevor Rogers under 5.5 strikeouts and Chris Bassitt over 5.5 strikeouts to win 3x
