AP Game Theory Decisions 1/23 » DFS Karma
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AP Game Theory Decisions 1/23

AP CORE Discussion

 

POINT GUARD – Terry Rozier, PG/SG, 4,000 (Core Lock) – Kyrie Irving & Al Horford have been ruled out tonight. This puts Rozier in an elite spot against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. In this situation, Rozier owns a 21.5% usage rate and averages almost 1.0 fantasy points per minute.

 

SHOOTING GUARD – James Harden, PG/SG, 13,400 (Core Lock) – The Rockets live and die by the three and by James Harden. The 76ers got the best of them on Monday but Harden still managed to put up 55 DK points in 30 minutes of play.

 

SMALL FORWARD – [Value/Pay Down]

 

POWER FORWARD – Julius Randle, PF/C, 8,400 (Elite Play) – With Anthony Davis OUT, Randle owns a 31.4% usage rate and averages 1.45 fantasy points per minute. Randle is elite in all formats and my only concern is a matchup against Blake Griffin. Griffin is good at getting opposing PF’s into foul trouble. Two quick fouls from Randle would put him on the bench and cut into his minutes. In this scenario, Jrue Holiday and Nikola Mirotic would be the main beneficiaries (both should also be considered elite plays on this slate).

 

CENTER – Enes Kanter, C, 5,000 (Core Lock) – With Luke Kornet OUT, Kanter moves back into his old starting role. Fizdale has been tough to predict this season but this play feels very safe given Kanters 5,000 price tag. With Kornet & Porzingis OFF the court, Kanter owns a 23% usage rate and averages 1.21 fantasy points per minute.

 

CENTER [PIVOT] – Aron Baynes, C, 3,500 (GPP Salary Relief) – With Horford OUT, Baynes moves into the starting role for the Celtics tonight. Baynes main risk is he lacks significant minutes upside. On the season, his most significant run was 23 minutes against the Hawks.

 

CENTER [PIVOT] – Joel Embiid, C, 10,500 (Elite Play) – Keep an eye on the status of Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons. If they both are IN, I have Embiid tagged as an elite play at his current price tag. If either Butler or Simmons is ruled out, I’ll be upgrading Embiid to a priority/core lock type of play.

 

[Roster Construction Note] – Given the dynamics of this slate, we should end up with plenty of value options to plug in two elite studs like Embiid & Harden. With that in mind, we still end up facing an opportunity cost decision. Let’s say Jimmy Butler gets ruled out; if we pay up for Embiid/Harden, it becomes very difficult to plug in Simmons or one of the elite Pelican’s 2nd tier plays (Don’t forget that Anthony Davis is OUT tonight).

 

GUARD – Kyle Lowry, PG, 7,200 (GPP Core) – Leonard & OG Anunoby have been ruled OUT (again). In this situation, we would normally tag Lowry as a cash play. Given his fantasy point performance last night and tonight’s matchup, I’m going to guess that he flies under the radar a bit tonight. Regarding last night, it appeared Lowry was just fine letting VanVleet take that game over. However, late in the 4th, we got a glimpse of what Lowry is capable of with Leonard off the court.

 

GUARD [PIVOT] – Jeremy Lin, PG/SG, 4,200 (GPP Salary Relief) – Bazemore is still OUT and Kevin Huerter has been downgraded to doubtful. Lin played closed to 30 minutes against the Magic on Monday and should be in line for a similar workload tonight assuming Huerter misses. Given the other, more obvious, value options on this slate, Lin could be one of the plays that flies under the radar.

 

***My goal is to post this early and provide updates as the slate changes due to injuries, don’t forget to check back before lock***

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