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AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 1/17

Happy Thursday Karma Nation! I’ve been absolutely swamped today so no NBA playbook for this 5 game slate. Instead, here are my notes on the core that I’ll be rolling out tonight. As always, this core could change as the news changes.

 

AP’S GPP CORE

Fred VanVleet, PG/SG, 5,400 – With Kyle Lowry & Kawhi Leonard OFF the court this season, VanVleet owns a 25% usage & 1.17 fantasy point per minute average. In my opinion, VanVleet is a no brainer type of play in cash games and single entry or three max tournaments.

 

Serge Ibaka, PF/C, 6,500 – With Kyle Lowry, Kawhi Leonard & Jonas Valanciunas OFF the court this season, Ibaka owns a 30% usage and 1.27 fantasy point per minute average. Much like VanVleet, Ibaka is an elite play in all formats tonight.

 

Bobby Portis, PF/C, 4,600 – Portis is expected to start tonight in place of Wendell Carter Jr who is out with a sprained thumb. Portis is active on the court and has historically been a high fantasy point per minute producer. When he has been on the court this season, he owns a 30% usage rate and 1.15 fantasy point per minute average.

 

Devin Booker, PG/SG, 7,800 – Booker had no minute’s restriction in his return against the Pacers. He only played 26 minutes, but this was due to the game blowing out. With Lowry and Leonard sitting out, this game should stay competitive and puts Dev in an elite GPP spot. I have him tagged as an elite tournament play because people will be hesitant to play him after putting up a dud in his return against the Pacers.

 

Nikola Jokic, C, 10,600 – I think people could over look the Joker tonight due to his price and the fact that this is a pace down game. I’d agree that the pace is a risk, However, in just 30 minutes, Jokic put up over 60 fantasy points the first time these teams played earlier this year. Look at Jokic’s ‘ceiling games’ year to date; 82 vs Suns, 73 vs Hornets, 73 vs Nets, & 69 vs Knicks. They all come against teams who struggle vs opposing bigs. Jokic is the master at maximizing advantageous spots.

 

Sum-> This core leaves you with 5,033 left per position. My strategy tonight is to eat the obvious chalk and to get my leverage up top with Jokic and Booker.

 

News to watch-> Keep an eye on Joel Embiids status. If Embiid is ruled out, I’d be adding Mike Muscala to a ‘must play’ assuming he would get the start.

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