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AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 1/25

AP CORE Discussion

 

POINT GUARD – Shabazz Napier, PG/SG, 3,600 (Core Value) – Allen Crabbe, Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jared Dudley and Dzanan Musa are all OUT.

 

POINT GUARD [PIVOT] – Elie Okobo, PG, 3,000 (Salary Relief) – De’Anthony Melton went down early last night and Okobo played 28 minutes. Crawford is also questionable due to being on the 2nd end of a back to back. If Crawford misses, Okobo will be forced into massive minutes.

 

POINT GUARD [Need Injury News] – Jerryd Bayless, PG/SG, 3,600 (Core pending news) – Teague has been questionable for a while now and hasn’t played since 1/20. Rose was doubtful earlier in the day, but both are now listed as questionable. If both are ruled out, Bayless would become an elite play in all formats.

 

SHOOTING GUARD – James Harden, PG/SG, 13,800 (Core Play) – Sure, Harden is reaching the price point where he needs to put up a ridiculous number to absolutely burn you. However, we have so much value opening up on this slate, Hardens ridiculous elite floor is just too good to pass up.

SHOOTING GUARD [GPP PIVOT] – Will Barton, SG/SF, 6,100 (GPP Play) – Will “The Thrill” Barton has played in 5 games now since returning from his injury. His minutes have ticked up like this; 16, 14, 23, 21, 29.5. He could be in line for around 30 minutes tonight against a Suns team that isn’t playing any defense at all. He makes for an intriguing tournament play. Gary Harris, who is only 5,100 on DraftKings, might be a little bit easier to click due to his price. However, I think Barton has more fantasy point per minute upside.

 

SMALL FORWARD – DeMarre Carroll, SF/PF, 4,700 (Core Value) – Allen Crabbe, Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jared Dudley and Dzanan Musa are all OUT. The Nets will be incredibly short handed and many of their players priced under 5k should see big minutes tonight. Carroll is essentially this teams ‘swiss army knife’. He can rack up peripheral stats and raw points. Carroll, at 4.7k, is underpriced given the role he will take on tonight.

 

SMALL FORWARD [GPP PIVOT] – Kelly Oubre Jr, SG/SF, 5,600 (GPP) – Given the amount of injuries this team is dealing with, Oubre could be in line for another big night. Oubre came off the bench last night but he still ended up logging almost 35 minutes. Oubre has historically been a raw scoring dependent type of player; lately, he has shown some ability to rack up peripheral stats.

 

POWER FORWARD – Paul Millsap, PF/C, $5,100 (Core Play) – With Nikola Jokic off the court this season, Millsap owns a 29% usage rate and averages 1.51 fantasy points per minute. The sample size is a bit limited (118 minutes) but either way, this is a massive overall bump. In my opinion, Millsap sees a big boost in his overall floor and ceiling, making him a very safe play at his current price point.

 

CENTER – Marc Gasol, C, 8,300 (Core GPP) The easiest thing I could have done was put Mason Plumlee in this spot. I mean, c’mon, we all know Plumlee is in an elite spot at 3,900 with Nikola Jokic serving a one game suspension. I tend to avoid the Grizzlies on almost every slate. However, they have one of the best possible matchups we could ask for. The Kings play at an elite pace and have been getting torched by opposing bigs. Additionally, some major trade rumors have been surrounding this team. In my opinion, it would be wise for the Grizzlies to put their “talent” on display. This is Marc Gasol’s chance to prove he’s still got it.

 

CENTER [GPP PIVOT] – Jarrett Allen, C, 5,800 (GPP) – As I stated above, the Nets are short handed tonight and Allen should get over 30 minutes against a Knicks team that ranks 25th vs opposing centers. With all the over value opening up, Allen will get some ownership, but he definitely won’t be chalk. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him rack up a few extra blocks against this under sized Knicks team.

 

Potential Build Path

PG- Elie Okobo, 3,000

SG- James Harden, 13,800

SF- DeMarre Carroll, 4,700

PF-

C- Marc Gasol, 8,300

G- Shabazz Napier, 3,600

F-

UTL-

This build leaves you with 5,533 left per position

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