AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 11/15 » DFS Karma
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AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 11/15

Happy Thursday Karma Nation! Normally I wouldn’t put together an article for a three game slate. . . But, with the monster hit last night, I couldn’t resist. This won’t be as polished – just consider the data below to be my raw notes for this three game slate.

 


Warriors AT Rockets -3.5, 217.5

Curry OUT, Draymond Questionable

Melo OUT, Gerald Green Questionable

PACE GSW: 14th  Pace Bump: -3.6 proj poss    DEF EFF: 1st

PACE HOU:  28th Pace Bump: +0.5 proj poss  DEF EFF: 24th

 

W/ Curry OUT: KD (40% USG, 1.59fp/m), Klay (37% USG, 1.19), Cook (26%, 0.99), Green (13%, 1.12)

W/ Dray/Curr OUT:  KD 40%/1.75, Klay 35%/1.13, Cook 28%/1.11, Jerebko 15%/0.92

 

W/ Melo Out; Harden 36%/1.43, Gordon 29%/0.82, CP3 26%/1.16, Capela 19%/1.10,

Melo/Green O; Harden 25%/1.41, Gordon 28%/0.73, CP3 24%/1.07, Capela 21%/1.10

 

When it comes to rotations, these two teams (w/ the given injury situations) is exactly what we want to see. Houston, against the Nuggets, rolled out an eight player rotation. Harden, Capela, & PJ Tucker all played over 35 minutes. CP3, Gordon, and Ennis played right around 33 minutes. We saw a very similar rotation against the Pacers except Gary Clark got all the minutes in the 4th over James Ennis (neither guys are relevant IMO so we don’t need to worry about that spot too much).

 

Chris Paul -> Elite GPP play -> Has an excellent matchup against Cook (could see more USG)

James Harden, Elite Play in all formats -> Highest USG/FP/M for the Rockets

Clint Capela, -> Elite DraftKings Play (I’m Pairing Harden and Paul and Harden and Capela tnight)

Kevin Durant, -> Elite Lock -> I’ll have 100% KD tonight

Klay Thompson, -> Solid to Elite

Andre Iguodala, SG/SF, 3,900 – Solid GPP Value (Usually plays more mins to guard Harden)

 


Hawks AT Nuggets -13.5, 222.5

 

John Collins, Dewayne Dedmon OUT, Taurean Prince OUT,  Alex Len Questionable

Den; None -> note, Jokic had an x-ray after his last game, no indications of missing today*

PACE ATL:   1st Pace Bump; -3.6 proj poss   DEF EFF: 26

PACE DEN:  27th Pace Bump; +5.2 proj poss   DEF EFF: 5th

*Blowout concerns

 

Usage&FP/M: Young 29%/1.22, Lin 28%/1.11, Prince 26%/1.02, Baze 21%/0.99, Len 20%/0.99,

Usage&FP/M; Murray 27%/0.93, Lyles 27%/1.05, Jokic 25%/1.47, Harris 24%/0.88, Millsap 23%/1.05, Morris 19%/0.90, Plumlee 16%/1.01

 

I have some big blowout concerns with this game; but either way, this is a massive pace up spot for Denver. I also had blowout concerns when Denver faced the Suns & Nets. . . Jokic put up 82 & 73 DK points in those games. Jamal Murray has been volatile all season but his style of play thrives in a fast paced environment. Paul Millsap generally relies on peripherals to hit value; we could see a lot of rebounds off missed shots, which could help his case out. Gary harris faces a tough matchup against Bazemore, who tends to be pesky on defense. Both players are in similar spots (Baze/Harris) as both are solid defenders. If this game gets out of hand, guys like Trey Lyles or Monte Morris could see garbage time work in the 4th.

 

Nikola Jokic, C, 9,600 – Solid GPP (Him, KD, and Harden arguably have the highest upside on this slate) Jamal Murray – Fine GPP, Monte Morris & Trey Lyles – Solid GPP value ,

Juan Hernangomez, SF/PF, 3,800 – Huge minutes upside, solid value

Mason Plumlee, 3,400 -> **Sneaky GPP value play of the night**

 

On the Hawks side, I could see a scenario like they had against Detroit. The game was essentially over by halftime. . . If you think this game stays close, then a gamestack makes sense.

 

Trae Young, Taurean Prince (OUT) (Main targets in a game stack) -> Jeremy Lin (in a blowout scenario assuming he gets some garbage time minutes)

 

Miles Plumlee (if Alex Len is OUT)

Kevin Huerter, SG, 3,200 (Elite value if starting for Prince)

Omari Spellman, PF, 4,200 (Solid value)

 


Spurs AT Clippers -6.5, 216

Pau Gasol OUT, Rudy Gay IN

Avery Bradley Questionable

PACE (SAS);   25th Pace Bump; +1.9 proj poss   DEF EFF: 19th

PACE (LAC);  6th Pace Bump; -3.3 proj poss    DEF EFF: 8th

 

USG&FP/M; DeRozan 31%/1.15, Aldridge 27%/1.06, Gay 24%/1.04, White 23%/0.86

USG&FP/M; Lou Williams 33%/1.10, Gallinari 25%/1.01, Boban 25%/1.50, Tobias 25%/1.07, Harrell 23%/1.26, Shai 16%/0.79, Pat Bev 14%/0.77

 

Spurs-> I want as little exposure to them as possible tonight. Sure, you could argue their main players are in fine GPP spots, I’d rather just target the studs in the Rockets/Warriors game

 

Rudy Gay, SF/PF -> GPP

 

Clippers-> Dan Gallinari & Tobias Harris feel like safe plays from a cash game perspective. I’m just not too excited about their ceilings.

 

Montrezl Harrell, 6,200 -> Solid to Elite GPP

Lou Williams -> Solid GPP


 

***

In Sum-> My plan tonight; I’m going to try to build around KD/Klay/Harden/CP3/Capela and maybe Jokic in one and hopefully fill with the correct value plays.

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