AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 11/27 » DFS Karma
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AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 11/27

Happy Tuesday Karma Nation! What a crazy night Monday was for NBA DFS. My main lineup went for 353 points, which normally you would think would be good for a take down. I cashed and made a nice return but I was around 20 points or so from first. The scores were crazy. Tonight, we have a simple five gameslate to tackle. Let’s dive in.

 

Roster Construction

Which games should we be targeting?

Knicks AT Pistons -7.5, 221 -> We have a neutral pace game, meaning the number of overall projected possessions is in line with each teams season average, and two teams that rank 27th & 23rd in overall defensive efficiency. The Pistons are favored by 7.5 points, which means Vegas thinks this game will stay relatively competitve throughout. I’d agree with this spread and I do not have a lean either way. Actually, I could see the Knicks backdoor a cover (4th quarter charge) or I could see the Pistons do the same thing (pull away in the 4th).

So, we have a high total game, pace is just fine, and niether team makes defense a priority. On the Pistons side, we know exactly how usage & FP/minutes will be distributed; through Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. I view both as priority plays and I am 100% on board with stacking them both.

The Knicks side is a bit more difficult to figure out. Fizdale has been mixing and matching rotations all year to figure out what works best. In my opinion, he will need Kanter and Vonleh on the court to match Griffin & Drummonds size. Detroit has been leaky vs Centers all season; I think Kanter could have a monster game in this matchup.

Preferred stack: Blake Griffin + Andre Drummond + Enes Kanter -> This route will immediately make your build contrarian as you will be locking up both Center spots on DraftKings. With so many elite options and potentially the majority of the field gravatating toward playing Nikola Jokic, I like Drummond + Kanter has a safe floor, high ceiling route to go in tournaments. Additionally, the way to attack the Pistons is through their backcourt. The Knicks backcourt is a bit dicey with Mudiay and Burke splitting time. Burke has the upside and he could thrive in this matchup. He would be the guy I would go with for a full mini stack with the above combo.

 

Pacers AT Suns +3, 215 -> Pacers are on a b2b and Victor Oladipo is OUT again. Draftkings has yet to adjust the Pacers prices. Many view Sabonis as a GPP play only but I believe he is elite in all formats. He is a very high FP/M player and has an elite matchup against the Suns. As far as roster construction goes, I like the idea of targeting Pacer players for value in my builds.

 

Hawks AT Heat -7, 222 (up to 224) -> We have a 5 unit bet on the overs in this game (at 222). However, the Hawks roll out a very unpredictable rotation, which makes them difficult to target for fantasy purposes. Long story short, just because I’m on the overs doesn’t mean we necessarily need to stack this game up. We have a similar total in the Pistons game where fantasy point distribution is much easier to figure out. My preferred route is to target the Heat value. Sure, Goatside might make one of my builds, but he is a very risky option at this point.

 

The rest of my comments/notes can be found below. Best of luck tonight!

 

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