AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 12/5
Happy Wednesday Karma Nation! I’ll be traveling this afternoon which might limit my ability to fully update my player sheet. Hopefully, I’ll have time to get it done! Let’s dive in.
Warriors AT Cavaliers +11, 222
Draymond Green OUT, Alfonzo McKinnie Probable. David Nwaba, Ante Zizic, and Sam Dekker OUT.
PACE: Warriors rank 16th and Cavs rank 30th in overall possessions per game. Pace aside, I have major blowout concerns with this game.
If this game gets out of hand, you could see guys like Curry, Klay & Durant fall short of paying off their salaries. This and the fact that the Cavs play at a very slow pace makes them easy fades in my book. The Cavaliers side is a bit more interesting since they have a very tight rotation. With that said, I’d still want to limit my exposure.
George Hill, PG/SG, 3,700 -> Hill played 35+ minutes the other day when he was suppose to be on a 20 min restriction. He didn’t do much with these minutes. However, he is 3,700 and could play 35+ minutes tonight.
Alec Burks, PG/SG, 4,000 -> I wish Burks was the man getting 35+ minutes. Burks isn’t afraid to shoot the ball and he is very active on the court. He makes for a solid to elite value tonight.
Collin Sexton, PG, 4,900 -> The Cav’s guard situation is pretty muddied but they really have no choice but to roll these guys out. Sexton is back under 5k and should see 30+ minutes tonight.
Tristan Thompson, C, 7,300-> Trist is the focal point of this team. Which isn’t a good thing for the Cavs. His price is up but he has been smashing value pretty consistently.
Jordan Clarkson, PG/SG, 5,300-> Clarkson rarely sees 30 minutes as he comes off the bench, but he is taking all the shots when he is on the court. GPP play in my opinion.
With McKinnie probable, the warriors frontcourt is a bit tough to read. Overall, I feel it is best to just limit exposure to this spot and this game.
Nuggets AT Magic +5, 207.5
Will Barton, Gary Harris OUT.
PACE: The Nuggets rank 26th and Magic 25th in overall possessions per game. This is a net projected large pace down spot.
With Barton and Harris OUT, the USG & FP/M splits look like this; Nikola Jokic 35% & 1.75/m, Paul Millsap 23%/1.33m, Jamal Murray 26%/0.99/m.
We have an injury situation that leads to significant usage & fp/m increases but this is also a massive pace down spot. Overall, we want to limit our exposure to this game but Jokic is very intriguing in tournaments. He has an elite ceiling and low floor. One more mention, Jokic does have some elite history against Vucevic (40.5, 58.3, & 60.3 his last three games vs Vuc).
Nikola Jokic, C, 9,200 -> Elite GPP.
Monte Morris, PG, 3,700 -> Solid GPP value.
Juan Hernangomez, SF/PF, 4,400-> Fine value.
Wizards AT Hawks +5, 232.5
Taurean Prince & Alex Poythress is OUT.
PACE: Hawks rank 1st and Wizards rank 8th in possessions per game. This is a massive pace up spot. Neither team has interest in playing much defense either. This game is very viable for DFS.
Update* John Wall OUT
John Wall, PG, 9,400 -> Elite play. Wall has been playing huge minutes and is taking lots of shots. He has one of the best individual matchups against Trae Young. He could put up a huge number tonight.
Kelly Oubre-> 6, 22, 29, 10, 37, 14, 8, 39. I asked my Son, who is six years old and is learning about number patterns in 1st grade, what the next number would be. He said, “11”. With his expert analysis, we can clearly fade Oubre tonight.
Beal/Morris/Porter all feel just a little too expensive on this 10 game slate.
Update-> I’ll provide an update here after my three hour drive
The main problem with targeting the Hawks is predicting their minutes and dealing with their crazy rotations.
Trae Young, PG, 6,000-> Elite GPP. He took 20 shots on 25 minutes of play against the Warriors. He is an extreme boom or bust type of play but he has shown 50+ point upside when his shot is falling.
Kent Bazemore, SG/SF, 4,400-> Elite GPP value (if starting). Baze is another boom or bust candidate with 40 pt upside. At a much lower price tag, he would be a way to get exposure to the Hawks at minimal salary.
John Collins, C, 6,300-> Solid play. Collins has been the Hawks most efficient player. My main concern is how efficient he has been, he could be due for some regression.
Dewayne Dedmon, PF/C, 3,900-> Elite GPP value. Dedmon logged 30 minutes against the warriors. This is encouraging as he is another one of those boom or bust players.
Jeremy Lin, PG/SG, 4,900-> GPP value. Lin is productive when he is on the court but minutes are his biggest risk. Again, he is a boom or bust play, but the bust is more so due to his minutes risk.
Thunder AT Nets +7, 220
No major new injuries to report.
PACE: OKC ranks 9th and the nets rank 22nd in overall possessions per game.
The Thunder are coming off a blowout win over Detroit. The spread is just 7, so vegas thinks this game will stay relatively close. However, this Thunder team is playing really good and could run away with this one as well.
Russell Westbrook, PG, 11,200 -> If this game stays close, RWB could post a big number tonight. He isn’t as consistent (from a DFS perspective), it really looks like Paul George is taking usage away from Russ. Overall, this is a good thing for the Thunder. It just makes Russ more of a GPP target with the other studs on this slate.
Paul George, SF/PF, 8,300-> It appears the only thing limiting PG13’s floor is his minutes. And his minutes are at risk if the game blows out. Russ being on the court lowers his overall ceiling. But his 8,300 price tag is nice. This is a pace down spot for OKC but I’d say PG13 makes for a fine overall play.
Steven Adams, C, 6,700-> Adams is a high floor type of player when given the minutes. And the way to attack this nets thing is with opposing bigs. Adams feels like a safe play tonight with some very sneaky upside.
Allen Crabbe, SG/SF, 3,800-> The one leaky spot in the Thunder’s defense is against opposing wings, unless Paul George is locking them up. Crabbe saw a nice increase in peripheral stats last game. Sure, this could be an outlier vs the Cavs (a poor rebounding team) but one of these games Crabbe is going to catch fire and will put up 35+. Solid GPP play.
D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG, 7,400-> Solid GPP. If this game stays close, it will probably be due to the play of Russell. His price is up which makes him a risky option given his low floor.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, PF/C, 5,300-> Solid GPP. Adams is a beast in the paint, which makes things difficult on opposing centers. RHJ could see an uptick in overall usage if Adams is giving Jarrett Allen fits.
Clippers AT Grizzlies, -2, 212
No new injury news.
PACE: The Clippers rank 7th and Grizzlies 29th in overall pace. This is a pace down spot for LAC and a pace up spot for Memphis.
The Clippers are a deep team that can be a bit volatile to target even in a good matchup. A matchup against the Grizz makes for an easy fade. Despite this being a pace up spot, I’m just not interesting in paying 8.6k+ for Marc Gasol or Mike Conley. This game makes for a fade in my opinion.
Mavericks AT Pelicans -6, 227.5
Nikola Mirotic Questionable (illness)
PACE: Mavs rank 17th and Pelicans rank 5th in overall possessions per game.
The main thing to watch for here is the viability of Mirotic. If he is ruled out, then you will want to be prepared to get chalky Randle into your lineups.
Luka Doncic, PG, 6,700-> His price has come down quite a bit but the production remains there. Now we get a pace up matchup against the Pelicans. Doncic is an elite play tonight.
Wesley Matthews~> Fine gpp value. Tough matchup if Jrue is on him.
Barnes~> He just feels too expensive with all these Cavs players healthy.
DeAndre Jordan, C, 6,900-> They will need big play from him tonight to make up with Anthony Davis. GPP only given the matchup.
Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, 9,100-> I’m not going to chase his 71 pt game unless some injury news drops.
Anthony Davis, PF/C, 11,500-> Elite play. If Mirotic is playing, he will be one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Julius Randle, PF/C, 7,100-> Obvious lock play if Mirotic is ruled out.
Nikola Mirotic, SF/PF, 7,200-> Interesting GPP play as most will probably fade him since he was scratched after lock on Monday.
Pistons AT Bucks -8.5, 230
Reggie Bullock OUT, Ersan Ilyasova Doubtful.
PACE: Pistons rank 10th and Bucks rank 3rd in overall possessions per game. This is a pace up game for both teams.
The Bucks have been involved in many blowouts this year, so that point is definitely a real concern. However, if this game stays close, it is relatively easy to predict where the fantasy production is going to come from.
Andre Drummond, C, 8,800-> Drum has put up huge numbers in the past against this Bucks team. Again, I love the matchup and feel he could be inline for one of those 20-20 type of games.
Blake Griffin, PF/C, 9,000-> Foul concerns is a real issue here. He makes for an interesting GPP play, but given the matchup, I’d prefer Drum over Blake tonight.
Stanley Johnson, SF/PF, 3,700-> With Bullock out, it could open up more minutes for Stanley. If he ends up starting (it looks like he will be coming off the bench), I’d upgrade him a bit.
Eric Bledsoe, PG/SG, 6,900-> Solid GPP. Opposing backcourts, except very recently, have fared well against this Pistons team.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF/PF, 11,600-> Elite play. If the game stays close, Giannis has the safest floor and one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
Brogdon-> He has been crazy efficient, probably a sell high candidate for me.
76ers AT Raptors -6.5, 229
Ben Simmons Probable. Norman Powell Out.
PACE: 76ers rank 4th and the Raptors rank 11th in overall possessions per game. This is an overall pace up spot for both teams.
Joel Embiid, C, 10,300-> Elite play in all formats. The pace in this game will be excellent and I like that his price has come down.
Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, 6,900-> I like to play Jimmy in prime time matchups. Tonight will definitely be one of those. Elite GPP.
Ben Simmons, PG/SF, 8,500-> With the Wall news dropping, I’d rather spend up to Beal over Simmons.
JJ Redick, SG/SF, 5,200-> Minutes are secure, his price is right. He feels like a fairly safe play but most likely won’t make my GPP lineups.
Kyle Lowry, PG, 7,700-> Again, Beal will most likely be my spend up Guard tonight.
Kawhi Leonard, SF/PF, 9,300-> My Jimmy comments apply to Leonard as well. I like playing him in prime time matchups, which we get tonight. His price is up there so we are going to have to pick and choose. If I want a 10k+ stud, it would be tough to fit Leonard, Beal and one of those studs into my builds.
Pascal Siakam, PF, 6,100-> Pascal might be the cheaper way to get exposure to this Raptors squad. I have him pegged as a solid play tonight.
Jonas Valanciunas, C, 4,300-> I like playing Valanciunas when the Raptors are facing an elite big. He isn’t getting the minutes, so that is the primary risk here. Risky/high upside GPP play.
Hornets AT Timberwolves -5, 220
Marvin Williams OUT. Cody Zeller Probable.
PACE: Hornets rank 12th and the Wolves rank 19th in overall possessions per game.
Miles Bridges, SF, 4,100-> Solid value. With Marvin out, Bridges took over and played well. He logged 29 minutes against the Pelicans.
Cody Zeller, C, 4,000-> Solid value. Zeller is probable and they will need his size to match up with Taj and Karl Anthony Towns.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF/PF, 4,000-> GPP value. You would think MKG would get some run with Marvin out. In my eyes, he will always be placed into that GPP category unless someone can guarantee me minutes.
Kemba Walker, PG, 8,100-> GPP. He should go overlooked tonight with all these elite plays and his price is down. However, he hasn’t shown his elite upside in quite some time.
Frank Kaminsky, PF/C, 3,700-> GPP Value. With Marvin out, it could be Frank that gets more minutes to match up with the Timberwolves size. He makes for a very low owned GPP punt play.
Karl Anthony Towns, C, 9,500-> Solid play. Personally, I’d feel safer paying 900 more for Embiid. KAT, at home, in an excellent matchup should always be considered though.
Andrew Wiggins, SG/SF, 5,600-> GPP. I’m not a huge Wiggins fan but this matchup against Lamb is very elite. The pace in this game should really fit his game as well.
Spurs AT Lakers -8.5, 224.5
Rajon Rondo OUT.
PACE: Spurs rank 24th and Lakers rank 6th in overall possessions per game. In the previous matchup these two teams have had, we have seen the game played at a very fast pace.
LeBron James, SF/PF, 10,500 -> Elite play. Somehow LeBron could be the man who is overlooked tonight. This slate reminds me of the night I took 2nd in a large GPP. We have all of these elite games early while the late game of the night could go overlooked. The last two times these teams met, Bron put up 67 and 59 points.
DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF, 8,900 -> Elite GPP. DeRozan could easily go overlooked tonight despite him putting up 60+ each time in this matchup.
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, 7,800 -> Solid GPP. Aldridge has a 60+ and a sub 30pt game against the Lakers. He has been hit or miss as of late but he should thrive in this matchup.
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