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AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 2/13

Happy Wednesday Karma Nation! We have a massive slate to break down tonight. Below you will find my “game notes” with the AP NBA Playbook at the bottom (should be posted around 4:45 central). Good luck!


Game Notes

Nets/Cavs -> The Nets have really been pushing the pace ranking 10th in possessions per game. Cavs still play at a lagging place ranking 29th overall. At first glance, it appears the Cavs have somewhat of a limited roster. However, they manage to get 10-11 players on the court each game. Nance is still very much in play. I feel like his usage takes a hit when Love is on the court. If Nance comes off the bench, he becomes less attractive. Sexton continues to see huge minutes and is a solid play. It looks like the Nets have around 9 active players for tonight’s game. Against the Raptors, Graham and Kurucs both saw the court and will be out tonight. D’Angelo Russell has a low floor and high ceiling, which puts him in play in tournaments. I like the idea of targeting the Nets value in this game; Allen Crabbe, RHJ (if starting), Joe Harris, Jarrett Allen or DeMarre Carroll.


Bucks/Pacers-> This slate is massive with many other elite spots. I’ll be fading this game.


Pistons/Celtics-> Kyrie, Baynes, and it looks like Rozier will be out tonight. Given this injury situation, Horford owns the highest FPM rate. He should log huge minutes tonight to matchup with the Pistons size and I’m tagging him as a priority play. In addition to this, I think we see at least FOUR Celtics players hit value tonight. Marcus Morris should garner quite a bit of ownership; However, Griffin is excellent at getting opposing defenders into foul trouble. I have a love/hate relationship with the Pistons. On one hand, they have very friendly DFS rotations. Griffin and Drummond tend to see 35+ minutes a night. Both are in play tonight; I’m ranking Griffin slightly ahead of Drum.


76ers/Knicks-> I’m not too high on the 76ers only because they have too many mouths to feed; very similar to the Warriors when all their starters are playing. This is a brutal matchup for the Knicks. Kevin Knox continues to see 35+ minutes a game. His main risk is that he is raw scoring dependent and he will have a tough matchup tonight. Deandre Jordan & Mitchell Robinson are intriguing GPP plays as the Knicks will need size to match up with Embiid.


Wizards/Raptors-> Leonard and VanVleet are OUT for the Raptors & Tomas Satoransky is questionable for the Wizards. If Tomas ends up being ruled out; we can give Bradley Beal a huge upgrade. With Leonard & VanVleet out, Kyle Lowry becomes a priority play (he owns an elite 1.40 FPM rate in this situation). Last time Leonard was out, Pascal Siakam put up a ridiculous number. I think he is very elite and could almost be tagged as a priority play. On paper, Serge Ibaka receives a nice FPM bump with Leonard off the court, but Gasol should eat into his time on the court. Jeremy Lin is expected to play tonight and assume Fred VanVleet’s role. . . He makes for an interesting tournament play. *Game stack is incredibly viable here*


Grizz/Bulls-> “The team said they would be cautious with Jonas Valanciunas on back to backs, but he also isn’t listed on any injury reports”. The Grizz are hard to trust so proceed with caution unless something is announced. If ValaNasty is ruled out, Rabb is in play, but I prefer Horford and Siakam over him. Joakim Noah would become a GPP value play. Massive pace down spot for the Bulls; I have very little interest in them tonight.


Rockets/Wolves-> Teague and Chris Paul are interesting, but I prefer Lowry over both. I also prefer spending up to Damian Lillard over CP3. With CP3 on the court, Hardens peripheral stats become much more volatile. I’m tagging Harden as a GPP play as he can get there. On the other side, this is an excellent bounce back spot for Towns who has been a FPM beast.


Heat/Mavericks-> This is a tough matchup for Dallas and their rotation is a bit funky right now. Doncic is in play in tournaments. Whiteside is always risky and is someone we should target only in the right matchups; tonight, is a perfect spot. Goatside makes for an elite GPP play. Dion Waiters has seen big minutes over the last three games. He is a very solid play & if Wade gets ruled out I’d bump him up to elite.


Kings/Nuggets-> The Kings are a very deep team right now which makes them somewhat risky. However, Bogdanovic is severely underpriced and makes for an elite value play. On the other side, Nikola Jokic has one of the best matchups on the slate. He should be inline to log another triple double.


Warriors/Blazers-> Normally I fade the Warriors as they just have too many mouths to feed. They have made for easy fades with Boogie in the lineup, which has brought all their prices down. Well, Boogie is out tonight, and their prices have come down just enough to firmly put them in play. I like the idea of pairing Curry and Dame has two “late game hammers”. Paul George absolutely torched this team twice and we could see Durant do the same thing. *The studs from this game are firmly in play*


Suns/Clippers-> Clippers are a team I hate to target as their best players come off the bench. Lou Williams is raw scoring dependent; he hit 50+ fantasy points in his last game with 90% of those coming from raw scoring. If he is popular tonight, you could argue a fade. Devin Booker is very much in play as this game should be played at a very fast pace. However, if Tomas is ruled out, I’d rather pay a little bit more for Bradley Beal.

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