Scoring Champ – Los Angeles Clippers/Denver Nuggets
This is one of the most shocking totals on the slate. Nikola Jokic has been one of the best centers in the NBA, and he has caught fire recently. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 27.4 points per game. He’s been on fire for longer than that, as he’s averaging 24.1 points per game over his last 14 games, as well. The Los Angeles Clippers rank third last in the NBA in points allowed (26.1) per game to centers. Jokic has flashed 40 point potential, and there’s a very real chance he could score nearly half of the points needed in this play himself tonight. Lou Williams is a usage monster for the Clippers, and he’s averaging 21.8 points in only 27.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Similarly to Jokic, he has caught fire recently, averaging 22.0 points per game in his 10 games since returning from injury. While this is a tough matchup for Williams, he’s a matchup proof scorer, who comes with 35+ point potential. Tobias Harris isn’t exactly a consistent option, but he is a major part of the offense, and he’s also averaging 22.0 points per game over the last 10 days. In two matchups, he’s averaging 20 points per game against Denver, who has struggled at times against power forwards this season. There is an outside chance that two of these players could combine to hit this play, and the upside that all three possess should be enough to hit, even if one struggles a bit tonight.
Play $50 on Tobias Harris, Nikola Jokic, and Lou Williams OVER 67.5 points to win $100 (2x)
Over Under 2/2 – Oklahoma City Thunder/San Antonio Spurs
Dennis Schroder has been struggling quite a bit recently, as he’s averaging only 11.4 points per game over the last 10 games. He has scored 16+ points in only two of those 10 games. Most importantly, Schroder played 30+ minutes in both of those games, and he isn’t expected to play that many minutes tonight. He’s an inefficient player without a large role in the offense. The San Antonio Spurs also rank slightly above average in terms of points allowed (21.9) per game to shooting guards. Bryn Forbes has quietly been playing well for San Antonio, as he’s averaging 14.5 points per game over his last 11 games. He has also scored 13+ points in eight of those games. Oklahoma City has looked outstanding against point guards this season, but they rank as an average team in points allowed (22.1) per game to shooting guards. Forbes has been taking double-digit shot attempts on a near nightly basis, including seven or more three-point attempts in four of his last five games. He quietly comes with solid production, and this total is a bit low for his potential.
Play $50 on Dennis Schroder UNDER 15.5 points and Bryn Forbes OVER 12.5 points to win $115 (2.3x)
Glass Cleaner – Detroit Pistons/Sacramento Kings
The Detroit Pistons are the exact type of team that is built for recording rebounds against the Sacramento Kings. Andre Drummond owns an elite 24.4% rebounding percentage for Detroit, while Blake Griffin is the next highest starter with a 12.4% rebounding percentage. On the season, this duo is averaging 23.3 rebounds per game. Drummond has also posted double-digit rebounds in nine of his last 10 games, including 14+ rebounds in each of his last three games. Surprisingly, Griffin has only recorded two rebounds over his last two games, but he had recorded 8+ rebounds in his three games prior to that. The matchup against Sacramento is elite, as they rank in the bottom-six of the NBA in rebounds allowed per game to power forwards and centers. Overall, Sacramento is allowing power forwards and centers to average 31.7 rebounds per game this season. Detroit has performed well against centers this season, but Willie Cauley-Stein is the best rebounder for Sacramento. He’s averaging 10.0 rebounds per game over the last 10 days, and he owns double-digit rebounds in six of his last 10 games. Furthermore, WCS has seen more consistent minutes at home this season, and he’s likely to be locked into 30+ minutes once again tonight.
Play $50 on Andre Drummond, Blake Griffin, and Willie Cauley-Stein OVER 36.5 rebounds to win $100 (2x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.