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Over Under 2/2 – New Orleans Pelicans/Milwaukee Bucks
I struggled a bit with the Anthony Davis points total, while easily locking in the over for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Starting with the easier bet of the duo, Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.1 points per game at home this season. He has only struggled to reach that number in games that Milwaukee fails to score at a high rate. The Bucks own an implied total of 120 points tonight, though, and their offense rolls when Antetokounmpo rolls. Davis was a bit more difficult because of his road struggles this season. On the year, he’s averaging only 25.8 points per game on the road, as opposed to 29.9 points per game at home. With that being said, the New Orleans Pelicans will be without Nikola Mirotic and Julius Randle tonight, leaving Davis to see increased usage. He has taken 30+ shot attempts in two of his last three games, and that could be the case again tonight. This should quickly turn into a game where two stars are looking to battle each other, leading to the overs on both scoring props.
Play $50 on Anthony Davis OVER 29.5 points and Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 26.5 points to win $106.50 (2.13x)
Scoring Champ – New Orleans Pelicans/Milwaukee Bucks
This play is an extremely easy way to double down on the first play. Assuming the top play hits, Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo would have combined for a minimum of 57 points, leaving Holiday to need only 19 points to hit on this play. He has scored 19+ points in eight of his last 10 games, while flashing 30+ point upside. This play is also a way to hedge the above play, as this play could hit with a big game out of Holiday rather than strictly from Davis and Antetokounmpo. As mentioned above, Mirotic and Randle are out, and there will be plenty of usage to be distributed. Holiday and Davis are likely the two biggest beneficiaries in what should be a fast paced, high scoring game.
Play $50 on Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jrue Holiday OVER 85.5 points to win $100 (2x)
Over Under 2/2 – Oklahoma City Thunder/Sacramento Kings
These numbers are a bit low for how this game is projected to play out. De’Aaron Fox was benched in his last game, as it was a quick blowout, and they wanted to basically give the starters a night off. Prior to that, he had scored 18+ points in five of six games, averaging 23.2 points per game over that span. He should be locked into big minutes tonight, and he has finally found his footing with Sacramento. The only major concern here is that Fox is only averaging 14.0 points per game against the Oklahoma City Thunder this season, but he has also shot only 36.4% from the field and 14.3% from the three-point line. His season averages are 47.7% from the field and 38.7% from the three-point line, meaning he should easily exceed value if his average start to normalize tonight. Paul George’s total is also surprisingly low. On the season, he’s averaging 24.9 points per game. He’s also averaging 29.0 points per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 24+ points in each of his last five games, while averaging 28.0 points per game against the Sacramento Kings this season. PG13 has been a focal point of the offense the majority of the season, and that simply isn’t going to change in a plus matchup tonight.
Play $50 on Paul George OVER 22.5 points and De’Aaron Fox OVER 16.5 points to win $102.50 (2.05x)