Over Under 2/2 – Los Angeles Lakers/Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings were blown out last night, leading to plenty of disappointment in this article. They get another elite matchup tonight, though, and we’re back on them. Buddy Hield only scored 11 points in that game, but more importantly, he took 18 shot attempts in only 26 minutes. He has taken 18+ shot attempts in six of his last seven games, and he’s also averaging 10.9 three point attempts in those games. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 23.4 points per game, and he has scored 19+ points in eight of them. Sacramento likely will not get blown out at home against a Los Angeles Lakers team without LeBron James, meaning Hield should see 30+ minutes again tonight. Kyle Kuzma is a scorer, and he’ll take on a larger role in the offense with James injured. He’s expected to play minutes in the high-30s tonight, and he was consistently scoring 20+ points per game when Brandon Ingram was out of the lineup. He should return to that role tonight, and the fast paced matchup only adds to that potential.
Play $50 on Kyle Kuzma OVER 19.5 points and Buddy Hield OVER 18.5 points to win $102.50 (2.05x)
Scoring Champ – Boston Celtics/Houston Rockets
The scoring for these teams is so concentrated that it’s a relatively easy play for me. I made this same play with Giannis Antetokounmpo instead of James Harden a few slates ago, and quite frankly, Harden is the better scorer. Over the last 10 days, Harden is averaging 39.4 points per game. He has scored 35+ points in seven of his last nine games, and he has flashed 50 point potential. Furthermore, Harden has been a significantly better scorer in Houston the season. Kyrie Irving is the focal point of the Boston Celtics offense, averaging 27.3 points per game over the last 10 days. He’s coming off of a 40 point performance, and he has scored 24+ points in six of his last seven games. Jayson Tatum doesn’t come with as much upside as the other two in this play, but he adds consistency, which is all I want. Tatum has scored between 17 and 23 points in nine of his last 10 games. This could quickly turn into a shootout between two of the top scorers in the NBA, meaning Tatum’s consistency only adds value to the upside of Harden and Irving. These three truly have the potential to hit the 5x (92.5 points), but I’m playing it safe in this situation.
Play $50 on James Harden, Kyrie Irving, and Jayson Tatum OVER 77.5 points to win $100 (2x)
Over Under 5/5 – Los Angeles Lakers/Sacramento Kings
Kyle Kuzma and Buddy Hield were outlined above, but we’re on the Los Angeles vs Sacramento overs for the second night in a row. The Clippers surprisingly started Boban Marjanovic last night, leading to Willie Cauley-Stein’s foul trouble and lack of production. The Lakers don’t have anyone that can shut him down like that, though, and he needed only 25.6 minutes to record 12 rebound against them in their only matchup this season. WCS’s biggest issues have been foul troubles, but this is a plus matchup that he can take advantage of. Bogdan Bogdanovic is a bit more difficult to project, but when he’s playing full minutes, he’s taking 5+ three point attempts per game. In a high scoring game, I’m expecting a couple to fall for him. This De’Aaron Fox prop is a bit too low again. He has totaled 8+ assists in six of his last seven full games. Surprisingly, he only had two assists against the Lakers earlier this season, but that seems to be more of an outlier than the expected, specifically with how well he has been playing recently.
Play $20 on Kyle Kuzma OVER 19.5 points, Buddy Hield OVER 18.5 points, Willie Cauley-Stein OVER 8.5 rebounds, Bogdan Bogdanovic OVER 1.5 three pointers made, and De’Aaron Fox OVER 6.5 assists to win $240.00 (12x)