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The Celtics (Tatum and Horford) really kept us from having a big night yesterday, but we still had Adams, Giannis, and Tyus hit for us. Tatum played almost the entire first half and took 16 shots and ended up going over by 1.5 which really hurt us. It was the first time in 6 games that he got over 14.5 in half so it’s safe to say we got pretty unlucky. Adams, Giannis, and Tyus all passed their projections with room to spare, so if you mixed and matched any of them then you profited. With my favorite play missing last night my favorite play record is now 4-1, let’s bounce back tonight and get that record up!
Embiid OVER 40 Fantasy Points
Being that it’s an elimination game for the Sixers, I expect Embiid to understand the assignment and pick it up here in game 6. Going against Bam is a tough matchup, but that’s why he’s only at 40 fantasy while usually he’s in the 48-52 range. I expect him to play a lot more aggressively than last game and to play more minutes. My only concern is his health, he is currently questionable, but if he is cleared to play I expect him to do all he can to try and force a game 7, and by doing that he should surpass the 40 fantasy point mark. I also like his point prop at 24.5 OVER just as much if you prefer playing that instead.
The SPF Predictor on BetKarma.com, which you can get access to here: https://discord.com/channels/@me/970408310606012426/973865918948065300 (Make sure to use code: BIGGIE for 10% off), had Embiid’s over projection as the top play at 54.4 Fantasy Points. That’s a pretty great margin supporting the Embiid over 40 fantasy score pick…
Confidence Meter (1-10): 7
Dorian Finney-Smith OVER 22 Fantasy Points
Finney Smith is arguably the third option for the Mavericks, and 22 fantasy points feels a little bit too low for him in game 6. He went under last game but the game was a blowout, in tonight’s game, I expect it to stay a lot closer. In game 4, Finney-Smith was looking like Curry hitting 8-12 three-pointers. Smith and Bullock are the Mavs go-to shooters, and in a game trying to avoid elimination, I expect a close and highly competitive game.
Being a solid defender, Smith also has block/steal upside value. I think 22 fantasy points is too low for a guy who’s going to probably see 38+ minutes and can drain threes, collect boards, and play good defense.
Confidence Meter (1-10): 6.5
Cam Johnson OVER 9 Points
James Harden OVER 1h 17.5 Pra
Devin Booker OVER 27.5 Points
Luka Doncic OVER 1h 24.5 Pra
Written by Biggie