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In yesterday’s article, we SMASHED the slate by hitting both plays!! Curry and Ja both smashed their projections and made it look easy. We also hit 4 out of 5 in our GPP flex play, doubling up our money. Tonight’s mission is to
do that again, but this time even better…
Luka Doncic 1H OVER 24.5 PRA
Luka has been averaging 33 Points, Rebounds, and assists in the first three games of this series. That’s a margin of 8.5 from his projection here at 24.5… It just looks too low for a guy like Luka who does it all. Luka’s been over this projection every game in this series thus far, I look for him to continue that streak at home. Luka’s full game PRA in the books is marked at 51.5 (with the odds leaning on the over), and usually, 1h props tend to be half of the full game number. Here, however, it is less than half of that being 24.5 (2.5 lower than what it should be), making it an easy decision to take the over.
Confidence Meter (1-10): 8
Jimmy Butler OVER 33.5 PRA
With Embiid’s return, the Heat just got blown out by the Sixers. Butler still managed to cover this number despite the blowout (He finished with 40 PRA). With the series now a little closer, being 2-1, I expect Butler to keep this game in Miami’s control to the best of his ability. That includes scoring, grabbing boards, and dishing dimes. The books have Butler’s PRA listed at 35.5 with the odds leaning on the over. That’s a two-point margin in our favor being 33.5 which just adds confidence to my decision to select this prop.
Confidence Meter (1-10): 7.5
Other Plays I Like
Jae Crowder 1H OVER 8.5 PRA
Chris Paul OVER 4.5 Rebounds
Written by Biggie