Merry Christmas Everyone! I hope my article tonight helps you get exposure to some low-owned option on one of the most fun NBA days of the year. Let’s get it. It should be really good! Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
ALSO if you have never played YAHOO Fantasy get in on the NBA tournament tomorrow! 100k to first. 250k in FREE OVERLAY with a TON of overlay additionally projecting. This is a 10 ENTRY MAX tournament as well. I’m maxing it out, I suggest you do too. It’s one of the best +EV decisions you’ll make in today’s DFS landscape.
Top GPP Plays:
- Damian Lillard: I’m not sure what Draftkings was thinking for this price point on Draftkings. But here we are, Christmas Day and Lillard is priced only 7.8k. After analyzing some ownership projections on PG’s on this slate, it’s clear Lillard isn’t going to be in the top 3 highest owned. There is nothing Lillard did over his last few games to get dropped to this price and it likely has something to do with the Jazz matchup but Lillard actually has the best individual matchup for PG on the slate. LOCK.
- Eric Bledsoe: This is a nationally televised game in MSG on Christmas day. The Bucks are going to come out and prove to the nation that they are a very good basketball team. Bledsoe plays extremely hard and is on most nights good for around two steals a game (upside for more against a turnover-prone Knicks squad). Bledsoe has been having quietly the best shooting season of his career with an eFG% of .568. If Bledsoe can get over 30 minutes today he will crush value on all sites.
Top GPP Plays: Outside of the lock button on James Harden.
- Andre Iguadola: It’s known by now that Iggy shows up for these type of nationally televised games and I don’t see there being any different this year. Iggy should get extended playing time if Durant is in any way limited or if the Warriors grab a big lead which is very possible. At 3.3k Iggy allows you to do a lot at the other positions where we’re all trying to fit in so many star players.
- Joe Ingles: Joe Ingle bells, Ingle bells, Ingle all the way…. to the top of our tournaments! LOL! Joe Ingles not only reminds me of the song Jingle Bells, but is going to be sub 10% owned tomorrow in his fourth game on a current tear he’s having where he’s scored no less than 33.75 DK points. Ingles is going to play heavy minutes for the Jazz while attempting double digit shot attempts including three’s which is big for the bonus on Draftkings. He’s been contributing in the rebound/assist/steal category and if he can keep that up he has 45 burger potential tomorrow which would be a massive boost on the rest of the field.
Top GPP Plays:
- Al-Forqu Aminu: Aminu is another guy I don’t mind taking a shot on where he is SO cheap on Draftkings (3.9k). Aminu is playing 30+ minutes a night and really doesn’t need a high usage rate as a big man to crush this price tag. Again, all the Portland players are priced extremely low for a matchup with a Jazz team that hasn’t been the same defensively as last season.
- Khris Middleton: Contract year? Check. One of the biggest NBA days of the year on National TV? Check. Khris Middleton is going to want to prove himself as one of the stars in today’s NBA and I think he’ll be doing just that today. The Bucks and Middleton have a lot to prove and I could envision a massive score from this team that is already the 2nd highest projected on the slate. This is also the 12pm game so you’ll want some exposure for your own utility so you aren’t sulking the rest of Chirstmas if you missed some nut pieces!
Top GPP Plays:
- Gordon Hayward: Gordan Hayward or Noah Vonleh was a tough decision for me in this price range but I’m sticking with Hayward. Leading the 2nd unit we’re going to see a much higher usage rate than Vonleh with the starters. While Vonleh will see maybe 3-4 more minutes on the floor than Hayward it is notable that even over the course of this season when comparing Vonleh’s fantastic play and Hayward’s sub-par play, Hayward is still a higher FP/min contributor.
- Kevin Durant: Being over-exposed to KD today is a very sharp move. People are going to be paying $500 more for Paul George and I couldn’t think of a bigger mistake even with the way PG13 has been playing which is some MVP caliber games. Durant for 9.3k is an absolute steal and if he gets his full minutes tomorrow he will easily be a top 5 raw point scorer on the slate. Don’t make the mistake of taking PG over KD anywhere.
Top GPP Plays:
- Brook Lopez: The value is what is going to win you the GPP on a slate like this. Everyone is going to have 15+% exposure on the big dogs. Brook Lopez offers what should be sub-10% ownership with a legitimate 10x ceiling if his shot is falling. Lopez is forgotten in today’s NBA but is still just 30 years old seeing big minutes for this Bucks squad. I believe Lopez is going to be a key piece of there win tomorrow.
- Rudy Gobert: I don’t know why Draftkings wants us all to be playing the Blazers/Jazz tomorrow but it’s ending up what’s happening with a few of my lineups given this pricing. Gobert has a ceiling over 50 points and could post a monster game against a smaller Blazers team. At 7.2k Gobert should be a lock for 5x and upside for much more.
Written By: Robert Viafora