Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 11/11/19 - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 11/11/19

Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
J. Harden K. Leonard K. Towns Rockets/Pelicans
R. Westbrook B. Ingram A. Drummond Raptors/Clippers
J. Holiday C. Boucher K. Porzingis Wolves/Pistons
M. Conley P. Siakam M. Gasol Mavericks/Celtics
D. Murray D. Favors D. Green Grizzlies/Spurs

 

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.

 

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • Overall this is a pretty weak slate that I will be scaling back on in terms of bankroll exposure.  There is only one clear game on the slate with a ton of fantasy scoring projected in the Rockets/Pelicans and only 6 total games on the slate, many of which won’t be played at a high pace.  It should be a messy slate in which the best approach will be to hit on the upside plays from the Rockets/Pelicans (you likely want multiple pieces from this game tonight).
  • Studs I’m focusing on in the slate include:
    • Harden/Westbrook as priority options
    • Kawhi/Towns as secondary top tier options outside of the Rockets/Pelicans game
    • Holiday/Ingram are easy to pair up with either Harden/Westbrook as we look to game stack
    • Doncic and Siakam are the 2B guys I’d consider but are second in priority to the studs listed above them.
  • The value plays on this slate I’m focusing on:
    • Chris Boucher – Lock
    • Derrick Favors
    • Rudy Gay
    • Landry Shamet
    • JaMychael Green
    • Eric Gordon
  • Outside of Boucher/Favors – the value plays are pretty gross on this slate but may see “over-ownership” in an attempt to jam in the studs.  A balanced approach to your lineup tonight could be contrarian.  This is the +EV approach I’m going to take in GPPs.
  • I am going to be focused on exposing myself to high total games with tight spreads when stacking in GPPs.
    • One of the most underrated parts of NBA DFS is game stacking.  The amount of times game stacks are utilized compared to the number of overtimes we see in the NBA is extremely underutilized.
    • When playing the 50,000 person GPP’s, you should be picking a game that you think will be competitive with a chance to go to overtime.  We gain a ton of additional value when a game goes to overtime and we have the relevant DFS plays from that game stacked up.
    • Make sure to focus on the games I listed in the table above when looking to stack a game tonight in GPP.

 

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  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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