Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 11/12/19 - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 11/12/19

Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
M. Brogdon A. Davis J. Embiid Blazers/Kings
K. Irving L. Markkanen A. Drummond Nets/Jazz
D. Lillard D. Sabonis N. Jokic Lakers/Suns
J. Butler R. Holmes R. Gobert Cavs/Sixers
C. Joseph B. Hield B. Adebayo Thunder

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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.

 

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • Tonight we get a little bit better of a slate with two extra games on the slate compared to last night.  The first play that stands out to me (and stood out to me before projections were even run last night) is Joel Embiid.  He comes across as a must play in all formats with upside to break the slate at this price.  As of now, he’s the chalkiest “stud” on the slate but his 90th percentile projection compared to his current DK price isn’t even comparable to the other players.  I’m prioritizing him in all my lineups.
  • This is a slate to plug in a center into your UTIL position.  This is something I’ll have across ~90% of my builds tonight.
  • Studs I’m focusing on in the slate include (in order of preference):
    • Joel Embiid
    • Andre Drummond
    • Nikola Jokic
    • Domantas Sabonis
    • Kyrie Irving
    • Anthony Davis
    • LeBron James
  • The value plays on this slate I’m focusing on:
    • Corey Joseph – The lock of the slate.  He’s the obvious value that you need to be plugging into your lineups.
    • Kelly Olynyk
    • Coby White
    • Furkan Korkmaz
    • Paul Millsap
    • DeAndre Bembry
    • DeWayne Dedmon
    • Emmanuel Mudiay
    • Rodney Hood
  • Outside of Boucher/Favors – the value plays are pretty gross on this slate but may see “over-ownership” in an attempt to jam in the studs.  A balanced approach to your lineup tonight could be contrarian.  This is the +EV approach I’m going to take in GPPs.
  • I am going to be focused on exposing myself to high total games with tight spreads when stacking in GPPs.
    • One of the most underrated parts of NBA DFS is game stacking.  The amount of times game stacks are utilized compared to the number of overtimes we see in the NBA is extremely underutilized.
    • When playing the 50,000 person GPP’s, you should be picking a game that you think will be competitive with a chance to go to overtime.  We gain a ton of additional value when a game goes to overtime and we have the relevant DFS plays from that game stacked up.
    • Make sure to focus on the games I listed in the table above when looking to stack a game tonight in GPP.

 

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  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

 

 

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