Bobby’s NBA Game Theory (11/27/19) - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NBA Game Theory (11/27/19)

Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
J. Harden Giannis ABC J. Embiid Bucks/Hawks
R. Rubio P. Siakam A. Davis Heat/Rockets
L. Williams P. George B. Adebayo Clippers/Grizzlies
K. Walker D. Green M. Harrell Nets/Celtics
E. Bledsoe J. Isaac J. Valancinus Hornets/Pistons

 

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


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Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • We have an absolutely huge slate to work with tonight given the 14 game slate.  I’ve done my homework and are going to go through to help you guys identify the positive values on this slate.  There is going to be a larger pool than normal given the slate size with less need of leverage off ownership given things should be fairly spread out.
    • However, looking at some ownership projections right now I am seeing a ridiculous 61% projection on LeBron James. While LeBron projects as a great play on this slate… he is ranked 12th in value with many different options above him that you can consider at lower projected ownership levels.  I doubt he actually gets above 50% but it seems that the field is overweight on LeBron tonight.  I’ll be taking a stand here and fading him (I’ll still have some exposure but somewhere around 5%).
  • When looking at the guard position and narrowing down to a 10 person pool for GPP’s I would use
    • James Harden – Top guard play of Slate with only 20% ownership
    • Ricky Rubio – Top Value play of the slate
    • Lou Williams
    • Kemba Walker
    • Damian Lillard
    • Malcolm Brogdon
    • Russell Westbrook
    • Devonte Graham
    • Ja Morant
    • Donovan Mitchell
  • When looking at the forward position and narrowing that down to 10 players I would use
    • Giannis – Top play of the slate
    • Pascal Siakam
    • Paul George
    • LeBron James
    • Blake Griffin
    • Anthony Davis
    • Draymond Green
    • Taurean Prince
    • Julius Randle
    • Brandon Ingram
  • If focusing on value to fit in these great players I’m looking at 90th percentile outcomes for GPP purposes.
    •  Goran Dragic
    • Dennis Schroder
    • Dejounte Murray
    • Mitchell Robinson
    • Lonzo Ball
    • Jakob Potel
    • Khem Birch
    • Cody Zeller
    • Mortiz Wagner
    • Dillon Brooks
    • Ivica Zubac
  • Obviously it is important to stay up to date on what value opens up closer to lock and weigh extreme value decisions (due to rest/injury).
  • Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible.  More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments.  (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).

 

If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.

  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

 

 

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