Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 11/18/19 - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 11/18/19

Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
L. Doncic Giannis T. Thompson Blazers/Rockets
K. Irving D. Sabonis H. Whiteside Bucks/Bulls
R. Westbrook K. Porzingis P. Siakam Cavs/Knicks
D. Murray D. House M. Robinson Pacers/Nets
P. Beverley J. Randle R. Gobert Hornets/Raptors

 

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


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Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • Today you want to start your single entry tournament/optimal lineups by locking in Luka Doncic who projects as the top value on the slate at 9.8k where he is projected over 60 DK points.  Clearly underpriced for his early season usage and production, Luka will be a staple of all my lineups tonight.
  • When it comes to Giannis vs. Harden I’m giving the edge to Giannis in a game where he actually projects for more DK points than Harden at $700 cheaper.  Giannis will come with higher ownership here but the discount + likelihood he outscores Harden (who has Westbrook back stealing usage) is something to consider.
  • Tristan Thompson is the top value of the slate and fills in the center position that really the only other player I was considering here is Hassan Whiteside which you could fit in UTIL if you really wanted to get both of them.  Otherwise, from a value perspective, center is fairly weak today if you exclude the PF/C eligible players (Sabonis/Siakam/Porzingis/Randle).
  • Studs I’m focusing on in the slate include (in order of preference and PT/$ value):
    • Luka Doncic
    • Giannis Antetokoumpo
    • Domantas Sabonis
    • Pascal Siakam
    • James Harden
    • Kyrie Irving
    • Russell Westbrook
  • Next tier:
    • Donovan Mitchell
    • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    • Damian Lillard
    • Hassan Whiteside
    • Kristapas Porzingis
    • Julius Randle
  • The value plays on this slate I’m focusing on (in PT/$ value:)
    • Tristan Thompson – Elite Value
    • Aaron Holiday – OK Safe Value
    • Aaron Baynes – Elite risky value
    • Daniel House – Elite Safe value
    • Mitchell Robinson – Upside value 
    • OG Anunoby – Risky value
    • Ante Zicic – Desperate GPP Value
  • Focus on creating the core of your lineups using the table above and then mix in the players I listed above as ceiling/value plays into your lineups.  You will have success if you follow this approach.
  • I am going to be focused on exposing myself to high total games with tight spreads when stacking in GPPs.
    • One of the most underrated parts of NBA DFS is game stacking.  The amount of times game stacks are utilized compared to the number of overtimes we see in the NBA is extremely underutilized.
    • When playing the 50,000 person GPP’s, you should be picking a game that you think will be competitive with a chance to go to overtime.  We gain a ton of additional value when a game goes to overtime and we have the relevant DFS plays from that game stacked up.
    • Make sure to focus on the games I listed in the table above when looking to stack a game tonight in GPP.

 

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  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

 

 

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