Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 11/22/19 - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 11/22/19

Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
L. Doncic K. Porzingis A. Drummond Hornets/Wizards
S. Dinwiddie B. Simmons J. Embiid Hawks/Pistons
J. Harden J. Butler A. Horford Cavs/Mavs
T. Young B. Griffin B. Adebayo Rockets/Clippers
D. Graham J. Parker K. Love Warriors/Jazz

 

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


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Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • The top play on the slate today is going to be Andre Drummond where he has come down to 8.5k and gets a fantastic matchup against a very weak defensive Hawks team that has gotten shredded by opposing big men.  Drummond’s CLEARLY underpriced here and should have no issues reaching value.
  • After Drummond, I am prioritizing Doncic as my other spend up candidate.  He’s right behind Drummond in terms of value and has been on an absolute tear.  He’s sure to come with ownership but I am going to be eating it.  I’m also headed to the Mavs game tonight so will want to have a lot to root for! Doncic is too good to pass up in this spot and I’m hoping the price rise brings his ownership down (Sub-20% projection right now).
  • Look to those two as starting points in your lineup today and get your #leverage from the mid-tier.  Some mid-tier values I’m filtering throughout my lineups are listed below:
  • These plays will take into account leverage, game theory, ownership, projections, value
    • Spencer Dinwiddie
    • Kristapas Porzingis
    • Devonte Graham
    • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    • Al Horford
    • Terry Rozier
    • Langston Galloway
    • Steven Adams
    • Omari Spellman
  • Focus on creating the core of your lineups using the table above and then mix in the players I listed above as ceiling/value plays into your lineups.  You will have success if you follow this approach.
  • I am going to be focused on exposing myself to high total games with tight spreads when stacking in GPPs.
    • One of the most underrated parts of NBA DFS is game stacking.  The amount of times game stacks are utilized compared to the number of overtimes we see in the NBA is extremely underutilized.
    • When playing the 50,000 person GPP’s, you should be picking a game that you think will be competitive with a chance to go to overtime.  We gain a ton of additional value when a game goes to overtime and we have the relevant DFS plays from that game stacked up.
    • Make sure to focus on the games I listed in the table above when looking to stack a game tonight in GPP.

 

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  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

 

 

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