Bobby’s NBA Game Theory (11/29/19) - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NBA Game Theory (11/29/19)

Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
L. James Giannis ABC J. Embiid Bucks/Cavs
L. Doncic A. Davis A. Drummond Wizards/Lakers
D. Mitchell K. Porzingis D. Sabonis Pelicans/Thunder
E. Fournier B. Ingram K. Love Hawks/Pacers
J. Holiday J. Isaac J. Randle, Clippers/Spurs

 

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


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Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • The first thing that comes to me as a lineup construction approach to this slate is playing LeBron James at the G or PG position.  He ranks out as the highest value on both but when compared with players who are F or UTIL (C’s) eligible he ranks 4th.  What this means is that you are making a negative EV play by plugging LeBron in at the F/UTIL position tonight when you could be making better plays at the position.
  • However – taking this approach and plugging LeBron in at the G position we’re going to need to be looking for value elsewhere.  These are my top value plays of the slate (I try to target players under 5k and these WILL be ranked in the order of PT/$ value):
    • Cody Zeller – Top “value” play but the value tier is very ugly today.  This is going to lead to a lot of mid-tier type builds.
    • James Ennis 
    • Kenrich Williams
    • Chris Boucher 
    • Mitchell Robinson
    • Dejounte Murray
    • Isaiah Thomas
  • I imagine today is going to be another slate where the majority of the builds focus on the mid-tier since there are a lot of positive value options to choose from.  If looking to get contrarian in GPPs I would be taking the stars and scrubs approach.  Plugin Giannis/LeBron and try to get a lineup that works for you.  If anything, come down off Giannis and plug in Embiid at center with some value to make it work.
  • Obviously it is important to stay up to date on what value opens up closer to lock and weigh extreme value decisions (due to rest/injury).
  • Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible.  More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments.  (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).

 

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  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

 

 

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