Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 11/4/19 - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 11/4/19

Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
J. Harden G. Dieng J. Okafor Nets/Pelicans
J. Richardson Giannis A. C. Capela Bucks/Wolves
B. Brown B. Clarke A. Drummond Grizzlies/Rockets
B. Simmons C. LeVert A. Horford Sixers/Suns
L. Kennard E. Gordon J. Allen Blazers/Warriors

 

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.

 

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • The pricing on this slate is really egregious.  There is so much value that you are forced to go stars and scrubs in your lineup and will be facing a ton of lineups that look exactly like yours.  I wasn’t even going to do a content piece today because of the shorter slate and the pricing but here we are.
    • To differentiate myself I am going to try to pivot in the high tier.  Harden and Giannis are the optimal play and while I will have exposure, I’ll be mixing in:
      • Kyrie Irving
      • Damian Lillard
      • D’Angelo Russel
      • Bradley Beal
    • Everyone locking in the value plays + Harden/Giannis will make it difficult to cash if they do what they’re supposed to tonight.  If choosing between the two I’m going Harden with Westbrook out.
  • The value plays are so obvious, but in case you weren’t sure who they were, these are the value plays I’m considering tonight.
    • Gorgui Dieng
    • Jahill Okafor
    • Bruce Brown Jr.
    • Markieff Morris
    • Brandon Clarke
    • Jeff Teague
    • Luke Kennard
  • You’re not sneaking past anyone with these plays, however.  They are all expected to be very chalky.  My favorite play from this group is Dieng/Okafor with Brandon Clarke/Markieff Morris my favorite chalk fades.
  • Next, I am going to be focused on exposing myself to high total games with tight spreads when stacking in GPPs.
    • One of the most underrated parts of NBA DFS is game stacking.  The amount of times game stacks are utilized compared to the number of overtimes we see in the NBA is extremely underutilized.
    • When playing the 50,000 person GPP’s, you should be picking a game that you think will be competitive with a chance to go to overtime.  We gain a ton of additional value when a game goes to overtime and we have the relevant DFS plays from that game stacked up.
    • Make sure to focus on the games I listed in the table above when looking to stack a game tonight in GPP.

 

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  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

If you’re looking to get premium membership access at DFS Karma – go to www.dfskarma.com/shop and use the code “ENDZONE” for a major discount off any one of our packages.  Feel free to DM me if you’d like more information on discounts/price/content/etc.

 

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