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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (1/14/18)

A surprisingly short Monday slate with two massive totals on the board.  Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Spencer Dinwiddie: Dinwiddie has been cold shooting wise over the last two weeks but his price has come down a ton and he is still seeing major minutes for the Nets as him and DLO can often be found sharing time on the floor down the stretch. With Dinwiddie, we get a 1k discount off of Russell who is going to be one of the chalkiest point guards on the slate. Their big games usually have a negative correlation so I like the idea of leveraging the Russell ownership by taking a shot on Dinwiddie who will not hurt you at this price tag. The matchup is OK and the spread/total is solid for a Dinwiddie game script. If Dinwiddie is ‘hot’ tonight he will crush his minute’s projection and crush his price tag.
  2. Kemba Walker: No, we are not getting Kemba at home but this game is an extremely sneaky spot to target from a GPP perspective where Vegas has given it a very high total of 223 between the Hornets and Spurs. Quietly the Hornets have been playing at one of the highest paces in the NBA this season while the Spurs are actually in the top half of the league in pace over their past 10 games. This is a game most people will right off with how these teams played last season but it seems Vegas believes the Hornets will dictate the pace. A ton of players in this game are underpriced and it makes for a very intriguing game stack. Walker is the top play for me at sub-8k.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Jeremy Lamb: Obviously I mentioned above how high I am on this game and Jeremy Lamb could be poised for a major night. The kid is a known walking bucket and should be a major contributor in the over/under tonight. Lamb is essentially a lock for 5x tonight with major upside if he can find his shot/fantasy upside. He’s been a bit cold over the past month averaging .07 less FP/min than he had been over the course of the season. He’s projected to go over 30 minutes tonight which he hasn’t done in the last four games where now his price has come down $1,100. Bold call of the day is that Lamb drops 30+ real-life points.
  2. Kyle Korver:  The Ricky Rubio injury has quietly opened up a lot of minutes for Korver at the two guard position with Mitchell taking over a lot of ball-handling responsibility and I think the Jazz would prefer the spacing Korver provides over Neto. Korver is still sub 4k and his minutes are on the rise. Korver has hit value in the last three games since Rubio has gone down and should be a lock for 20 DK points again tonight unless he has a ROUGH shooting night which is possible but unlikely. If he can contribute with some peripherals he could have a 30 DK point night. I love his upside as a punt play.

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Gordan Hayward:  Surprising we’re not seeing crazy ownership projections on Hayward with Irving and Smart out tonight. Last time Irving was out, Hayward had himself massive games and should get a similair opportunity tonight against the Nets. At 5.3k, if Hayward plays 25-30 minutes it’s hard not seeing a 9x ceiling on him that is extremely possible. His usage should spike to between 25-30%. I like the total on this game even though it is a matchup between some lower-paced teams.
  2. DeMar DeRozan: If you’re looking to follow me by getting overexposure to this game obviously we should be giving a look to DeRozan who is projected to be less than 15% owned on a 6 game slate. This is a fantastic leverage spot in which the Spurs are projected to score a ton of points. Obviously, we get the new DeRozan where he is a consistent contributor in the peripheral department and really does offer a massive ceiling. 8.5k is an extremely fair price to play for the type of upside we can capture with DeRozan in GPPs. DeRozan and Bertans will be in a lot of my lineups tonight.

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Montrezl Harrell:  Harrell may not become as popular on this slate as he should be priced above 7k as a bench player. However, he is in an insane 240 total and deserves to be one of the highest owned players on the slate coming off the bench where he’ll see a top usage % for PF’s on this slate behind the top dogs of Griffin, Davis, and Aldridge. He should be locked in for 30-32 minutes and has a massive ceiling where his average FP/min this month is 1.3. He’s one of my locks to get exposure to this game.
  2. Al Horford: Obviously, you’ll want Anthony Davis in a lot of your lineups tonight but I don’t mind the Horford play where he will get a usage bump with Kyrie/Smart out against one of the best matchups for big man on the slate. Horford is 6.2k locked in for over 30 minutes and projected for less than 15% ownership. I love this play if you’re looking to pivot off Harrell and get a little cheaper.

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Jaren Jackson: Jaren Jackson is one of the most talented rookies in the last draft and the only reason we haven’t heard more about him is because he plays in Memphis and has extremely volatile minutes. Over his last six games his minutes have been a LOT more consistent and the Grizzlies will likely need him tonight to mathcup with the Houston bigs. At only 5.1k, the cheapest we’ve had a chance to get him in a while, I like taking a shot at his 8-9x upside in a mathcup against a team playing at the second fastest pace in the NBA over the past 10 games.
  2. Pau Gasol:  If you’re looking to jam in a lot of the studs on this slate you will need some salary relief and I don’t hate the Pau Gasol play at 3.1k. He’s back and while he shouldn’t see major minutes tonight he is a massive usage player while on the floor. His ceiling will depend on his ability to knock down threes but I don’t mind punting Pau Gasol tonight to open up some salary for some big plays.

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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