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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (1/25/19)

Another large 10-game slate for this Friday. We’ll try to find some spots to expose in my article today.  Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Dennis Smith Jr.: I love Dennis Smith Jr. in this spot with his current price below 5k on Draftkings.  After an extended absence, DSJ is back and I expect him to outproduce his .81 FP/min in this current stint with the Mavericks.  Obviously, we’re going to see him take on a larger role and be a lot more aggressive on the court which we saw. In Smith’s game earlier this week he played 36 minutes with a usage rate over 28%.  These are big-time numbers that provide the opportunity for DSJ to have a massive game if this ends up being a trend.  Smith crushed his price tag earlier this week with over 30 DK points and had a terrible shooting night.  If Smith Jr. can put together a solid shooting performance tonight ranked 17th in defensive rating against guards the last 10 games, he could easily hit 10x tonight.  I can’t believe he’s projected to be under 10% owned (so much PG value).  This is an elite spot and I’ll have 100% Smith tonight.
  2. Mike Conley: Conley is going to continue to get showcased by the Grizzlies as the trade deadline approaches and the Grizzlies are looking to deal their star PG.  I was on Conley in his last game and he ended up dropping 31 points but failing to hit his ceiling due to lack of any real peripherals (2 rebounds, 1 assist).  I believe the scoring is going to continue to be there as Conley’s usage will be over 30%.  The assists/rebounds/steals are going to pop and if everything comes together Conley could easily hit for 50 Dk points.  I believe Conley will outscore the much more popular D’Angelo Russell tonight for $900 less tonight on Draftkings.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Eric Gordon: Kawhi is going to be all over Harden tonight and I think this sets up for a much better matchup for Gordon who could end up soaking up usage if Harden is inclined to give up the rock a bit more.  Gordon is actually playing terrific basketball over Harden’s run, especially from a fantasy perspective where the SG is averaging an uncharacteristic 1.03 FP/min.  With him projected to get over 35 minutes tonight at only 5.3k on Draftkings it’s hard to see him not hitting value.  This is an actual pace up matchup for Gordon and the Rockets, and I hate to ‘call it’ but Gordon is dropping 40 DK points tonight with at least 30 real points.
  2. Joe Harris: All the attention is going to be on Russell and Shabazz Napier with Dinwiddie sidelined but this could open a larger usage role for Joe Harris who has proven he is not just a spot up shooter with the ability to cut, get to the rim, and occasionally create his own shot.  This is something most NBA fans would not know had they not been watching Nets games as I do.  Harris should be locked in for heavy minutes tonight and like Gordon, is priced below 5k.  This should be a faster paced high scoring game with little defense from the Knicks side.  Harris is 3rd in the NBA in 3PT% and obviously, we get the 1/2 point bonus on Draftkings if he’s knocking them down at the clip he has.  For the record, Napier is a lock tonight and I’m fading Russell.

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Trey Lyles:  I’m seeing projected ownership under 5% for Lyles tonight which is extremely surprising giving his likely expanded role with the suspensions.  I understand Mason Plumlee is a lock tonight, similair to Napier, but I don’t mind plugging in Plumlee/Lyles lineups and soaking up all those additional minutes with two players priced below 4k.  Lyles is a dynamic player who should be able to post a big game if he gets over 20 minutes tonight.
  2. Bogdan Bogdanovic: I think 6k will likely be the time I stop plugging and playing Bogdan.  The guy has an elite ceiling and will easily hit value in most games he plays over 30 minutes.  This Grizzlies/Kings game has sneaky shootout upside and with all the Conley exposure I have, I love the correlation play with Bogdan who is currently scorching hot coming off a 50.5 and 45.5 DK point games.  If he continues to be a contributor on the glass and distributing the ball he could continue to crush this price tag.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Paul Millsap: Millsap’s minutes likely won’t change too much here but we should get a spike in usage for a PF who is one of the most underrated players in the game of basketball.  Millsap has been consistently good all year and this is likely a game he falls between 30 and 35 DK points.  Obviously, I believe he’s a bigger risk than Lyles/Plumlee but if you’re looking to get weird while getting exposure to the Denver frontcourt, Millsap is the way to go.
  2. Kenneth Faried:  Faried is going to continue to see minutes for the Rockets especially with Nene out (in addition to Capela).  Faried actually fits perfectly in this Rockets offense and should continue to clean up on the boards and play at a high level on a very good team.  People will be scared off by the recent price jump to 5.3k after he was essentially a reserve for the Nets all season.  However, he’s getting the minutes and producing in the games he’s played for the Rockets.  It’s also intriguing to see him taking 3’s which obviously just increases his potential for a ceiling game.

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Enes Kanter: No one will be playing Kanter tonight after the major burn on Wednesday night.  However, I think the Knicks will actually try to win this game against the cross-town rivals and we know that Kanter can dominate this Brooklyn frontcourt.  With everyone plugging in Nets value tonight I think the correlation with Kanter makes a ton of sense.  I believe we’ll get 25+ minutes from Kanter tonight in which case he’d be 40+% owned had people had a grasp on what’d he be able to do.  Remember, recency bias in DFS is one of the largest edges we have and I will be close to 100% on Kanter tonight.
  2. Montrezl Harrell: Harrell has been volatile all season and with his current ‘cold streak’ of 5 games essentially not hitting value, we’re not going to see a lot of ownership on him tonight.  I love the price decrease where his minutes and usage has been the same as we’ve seen when he’s posted massive games.  This is one of the best matchups on the board and could be a big get right spot for Harrell.

Written By: Robert Viafora

Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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