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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (1/29/19)

Solid-7 game slate today with some big dogs we can pay up for… Going to really spread the ownership thin in some spots which will make this slate a lot of fun! Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Alec Burks: I’m going to be looking at the PG/SF/PF spot mainly for value tonight while paying up for SG/C’s.  Just seems to be the roster construction I think is sharp in GPPs tonight.  Burks has been on fire and is really seeing major minutes for the Cavs over his last three games.  The trend of his minutes over his last four contests have gone from 17 -> 25 -> 30 -> 32.  Obviously, this is a trend to pay attention to as Burks price has only risen $500 on DK over this span.  His usage trend is also on the rise over his last three games.  A 218 total between the Cavs and Wizards is definitely one that has my eye with a ton of Cavs value.
  2. Tomas Satoransky: Satoransky doesn’t have a crazy high usage rate for a PG however he’s a big guard who gets a ton of boards.  He’s averaging over 5 rebounds per game since taking over the starting role.  In addition to contributing on the boards, he is racking up assists with counts of 8, 8, 10, and 8 over his last four contests.  A matchup against soft CLE defense (28th in defensive rating against guards), Satoransky has a pretty darn high ceiling.  Nobody is going to want to play him at 6k.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Jimmy Butler: Jimmy Butler is one of those guys who always loves to show up in big games.  Today the Sixers are across the country in LA under the bright lights where I expect Jimmy to have a really great game.  His usage rate is around 25% over his last five games and he should be expected to play 38 minutes tonight if this game stays close (there is not currently a spread on this game).  If I can get a player of Butler’s caliber for under 7k in a situation he’ll see 1/4 of the usage + play more minutes than potentially anyone else on the slate I’m going to get exposure.  I don’t think Butler burns you tonight and his ceiling is up there with the best of the SG’s.
  2. D’Angelo Russell: Russell’s projections are down after he barely played against the Celtics last night. The reasoning behind this (I was watching the game), was that the Celtics had a 10 point lead, the Nets had a game the next day against the Bulls that is much more of a must-win than the Celtics, and Russell’s minutes are going to be preserved for games they ‘should’ win.  Tonight Russell should be the featured players and I’d say barring a big blowout Russell will for sure get over 32 minutes tonight.  Keep in mind he put up 39 DK points (25 real points – 40% usage rate) in just 23 minutes last night.  He has a 60+ DK point ceiling tonight and I think he’s a lock for over 50.

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Stanley Johnson:  Reggie Bullock is out meaning Johnson will likely slide into the starting lineup and get a huge usage/minutes bump tonight.  People don’t realize this but the Bucks rank 26th in the NBA in defensive rating (50.3) against guards.  Johnson (who is SF eligible on DK but mainly plays on the wing), gets put into a fantastic matchup in a pace up game while priced at 3.2k on Draftkings.  This sets up similarly to the Kevin Looney situation last night who ended up smashing value as one of the elite GPP values on the slate.  Similair scenario with Johnson tonight and he should be a lock for minimum 5x with obvious potential for more.
  2. Rodney HoodLike with Burks, the Cavs actually have a solid implied team total tonight and most of their players are underpriced.  If Rodney Hood is priced 4k playing over 30 minutes a game he’s always going to be in my player pool and he will 100% jump to the top list of my plays tonight coming off two games where he is firing from deep (5 & 6 ATT).  The rebounds will come for him and if we can throw in a few other periphrial’s with a better shooting night Hood couldd destroy this price tag.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: This is a very risky play which may be higher-owned than he should be (ownership projections are up/down all day), and while I usually don’t like taking major risks like this RHJ is playing HARD as usual and has seen his usage spike of late as he attempts to up his production in a contract year.  His minute’s projection is around 22 tonight but I picture him playing more against a smaller Bulls frontcourt.  They’re going to need RHJ to keep up with the versatility the Nets will face tonight and I think 25+ is in line for him again.  Rondae is a do it all player and if he attempts anywhere close to the number of shots he took last night he has 10x upside (bust potential is huge with question marks around rotation).
  2. Josh Jackson:  Everyone is going to be on Holmes who is projected around 25% owned.  Jackson is projected for half the ownership and at a position where both are eligible and priced fairly close, a pivot to Jackson could give you massive leverage over 1/4 of the field if Jackson is able to outscore Holmes PT/$ which is extremely possible if not likely imo.  Earlier in December we saw this exact matchup and scenario for Jackson who just had a putrid shooting night (2-14) and failed to hit value.  If his shot is on tonight his ceiling is elite because the peripherals will be there.

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Joel Embiid: I mean this is the lock of the slate for me.  There are so many great big men to pay for today but Joel Embiid grades out the best and has seen historical success against the Lakers (one game over 60 DK points and another over 90!!).  Tonight his ownership projections seem to be down due to the fact he skipped shootaround.  I’m not the slightest concerned as the report I read has him locked in to play tonight.  10.2k for Embiid is an absolute steal in this spot and he could be someone you need to win big on this slate.
  2. Ivica Zubac: On the other side why not role the Zubac train while everyone is hopping off for Jahill Okafor?  This seems like an obvious pivot for me as I believe Okafor’s ceiling will come down a bit unless he continues to shoot 80% from the field every game.  This is actually an ironic matchup tonight against Faried and Okafor who both sat the Nets bench without getting any playing time and now are two guys absolutely rolling for their respective teams.  Back to Zubac.  He’s not 5.6k but has shown his ceiling is over 50 DK points if he gets the minutes.  Luke Walton better be paying attention to what’s working for the Lakers and continue to roll out Zubac for heavy minutes.  This matchup is not the easiest for Zubac but I like his ceiling here where everyone else is pivoting.

 

Written By: Robert Viafora

Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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