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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (1/30/19)

Pretty good 8-game slate tonight.  Let’s hope the chalk value doesn’t bust tonight (or does if we fade). Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Ricky Rubio: Today is a weaker slate at the PG position and I actually went through the entire slate before going position by position and have to say I’m not a huge fan of this slate as a whole.  There are only a few elite spots that will end up very chalky and then we’re left over with some ‘OK’ spots which I will be utilizing to prioritize upside.  Ricky Rubio has that type of upside back for his 5th game where his minutes should eclipse the 30 minute mark for the first time.  In the 4 games prior since he’s returned from injury he has posted respectable to elite usage rates while producing at a high FP/min.  Given his bump in minutes expected tonight without a major increase to his price tag he is one of the best GPP values on the slate.
  2. Darren Collison: With Oladpio going down we’re going to see someone emerge from this Pacers team with so many additional minutes and usage to go around.  I’m torn whether it will be Bojan Bogdanovic from the scoring side or Collison from the ball-handling.  For now, I’m going to continue to be over-exposed to both until I figure this decision out who has more value down the stretch this season from a DFS perspective. Collison is producing .07 more FP/min since Oladipo got hurt and is locked in for heavy minutes. This Wizards team is one of the best matchups for opposing PGs and I love Collison in this spot.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Wesley Matthews: Shooting guard is pretty weak today but since I likely won’t be paying up for Doncic I’ll get my exposure to this huge Mavericks implied total through Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes who are both major values tonight.  Matthews is always a tough play to swallow given he could easily go for 30+DK points or shoot 1-7 and barely break 15 DK points.  I’d expect this to be a much chalkier play had Matthews not been coming off three terrible games where he scored a total of 21 points in 83 minutes.  Not exactly impressive from a starting SG.  However, Vegas loves them here and we know he has the opportunity to score into the 20’s with the number of threes he takes per game.  The Knicks are terrible on defense and I see Matthews showing up in this game.
  2. Tim Hardaway Jr: Hardaway Jr. has upside in this spot and while he’s a tough play to swallow I’m taking the risk with him tonight as someone who we know is a scorer on the other side of the Mavs game.  I’m banking on his recent hot shooting to maintain after a somewhat extended cold stretch + missing a few games.  If Hardaway is shooting 16+ times a game plus contributing in peripherals like he has been I’m interested.

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Harrison Barnes:  Barnes is just too cheap for this Mavericks team given the total tonight.  I believe nailing the 1-2 pieces from this game will be the key to a massive GPP score tonight on both sites.  I’m leaning with the Matthews/Barnes value over Doncic/Smith who both have seen massive price spikes.  5.2k is a great price for Barnes who will not burn your lineup as he’s a very consistent player but has provided ‘spiked’ games throughout this season with the Mavericks.  The attention will be on Doncic and Barnes could quietly breakthrough for 7-8x.
  2. Bojan BogdanovicAs I said above with Collison I believe in Bojan’s scoring upside and at just 5.5k he has close to 10x upside.  After doing some more in-depth research I am actually leaning higher on Bojan than Collison (but will still have exposure to both).  He’s been playing HEAVY minutes for the Pacers and has seen usage spikes since Oladipo went down.  He’s one of my favorite plays tonight.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Marvin Bagley: Bagley is quietly one of the best rookies in this class and he doesn’t get a ton of hype but has been a major contributor towards the Kings success in the West.  Bagley doesn’t see heavy minutes but is an extremely efficient player while on the floor while producing at a high FP/min level (1.06).  He gets a great matchup tonight with the Hawks who don’t play defense and pay at one of the fastest paces in the NBA.  Bagley has 40 DK point upside tonight and is projected for ownership in the single digits.
  2. Bam Adebayo:  Bam will be a much deeper GPP play tonight but has the best matchup on the entire board for PF’s.  Bam’s minute’s spike between the high 20’s to the mid teens.  It usually depends on how well Whiteside is playing and how well Bam is playing as Spoelstra rolls with the hot hand.  Bam’s minute’s projections settle in the middle but we can capitalize on this volatility on this slate.  If Bam plays over 25 minutes tonight he’s a lock for value with a ton of upside.

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Willie Cauley-Stein: WCS is going to be one of the chalkier plays you see tonight included in my article but between him, Horford, and Okafor there are not a ton of plays I feel comfortable paying up for here (again not a huge fan of this slate).  WCS offers a ton of versatility and upside against a team that ranks 18th in defensive rating against the center position.  He’s seen b2b games of 30+ minutes and is coming off three days rest so we should feel comfortable about his workload tonight.  I can almost guarantee WCS will produce higher than a 1 FP/min rate tonight and he should exceed his minute’s projections.
  2. Al Horford: Horford popped off in his last game against the Nets where he ended up my favorite center on the entire slate.  He’s seen a price increase but has been on an incredible tear picking up for the Celtics with Kyrie out averaging 1.18 FP/min.  The Celtics are implied for a ton of points tonight and if Horford can put together a solid scoring night with his ability to rack up peripherals another 50 fantasy point game shouldn’t be out of the question against the Hornets who rank 22nd in defensive rating against centers.

 

Written By: Robert Viafora

Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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