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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (10/19/18)

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Play: Kyle Lowry

Kyle Lowry taking the sidekick role to Kawhi Leonard will be interesting to watch develop but I actually only think it will increase his efficiency as the defense will be honed in on Leonard.  We saw a bit of what is to come in his first game as Lowry only attempted 12 field goals but made 10 of them.  Obviously, Lowry isn’t going to shoot at this mark throughout the season but his volume will increase to the point where he will have games attempting 20+ field goals.  Lowry was locked in for 19.9% usage in the season opener but played an encouraging 35 minutes.  We know what we’re getting with Lowry in terms of minutes and as the veteran point guard usage should fall within that 22-24% were looking for as the season develops.  Lowry, one of the most underrated shooters in the NBA will be <10% owned on this slate.  Great pivot if you are paying up at guard tonight.

Fade: Malcolm Brogdon

I just don’t get why anyone would pay for Malcolm Brogdon at 4.9k.  His usage is minuscule and while he does get minutes, Divencenzo is going to start cutting into those as he looked good in his NBA debut.  If you’re looking in that price range Brogdon falls under look no less than Trae Young or Frank Ntilikina both who project similair minutes/usage but have MUCH higher ceilings.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Play: Kawhi Leonard

As I discussed on Wednesday’s slate, Leonard at the shooting guard is gold for DFS players.  Especially on a slate where shooting guard is pretty weak (imo) Leonard is a great guy you can pay up for.  While I won’t have a lot of teams with Lowry/Leonard as I think each one caps the others upside a bit, I do like Leonard by himself and will take his 50+ FP ceiling for 8.5k while people are refusing to play him.  Leonard saw an insane 32.1% usage rate in his first game on the Raptors and if that continues tonight in his 35 projected minutes of play he is going to crush his price tag even in a tougher matchup with Boston.

Fade:D’Angelo Russell

As much as I hate to say it as a huge Brooklyn Nets fan, D’Angelo Russell is a full fade for me tonight.  He did not look good at all in the season opener and is getting passed in minutes throughout the rotation by guys like Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie who both showed out on Wednesday.  While Russell is an extremely skilled player who has a chance for a breakout season, Kenny Atkinson won’t play him over 30 minutes a game and his usage isn’t that of the team’s star.

Small Forward

Top GPP Play: Caris LeVert

As I mentioned above, Caris LeVert looks like the guys hoped they would get and drafted coming off a pretty serious injury that killed his draft stock.  LeVert is listed as a small forward on Draftkings but sees a ton of time as the team’s primary ball-handler which really does raise his ceiling a ton. LeVert’s increase in skill/ability was touted by players/coaches within the Nets organization in training camp and he is truly poised for a breakout year.  LeVert showcased his abilities on Wednesday posting a 27/4/4 line on 32% usage over 34 minutes.  I think this trend continues for LeVert as one of the few players in Atkinson’s system who will eclipse 30 minutes.

Fade: Terrance Ross

I just don’t see the point of paying down for Terrance Ross on this slate.  There are a ton of mid-tier plays that are elite for this slate.  No need to chase a low usage player who really doesn’t have the ceiling people think he does.  I’ve seen the tape with Ross before and you will be surprised how irrelevant a guy can be on an NBA court for 25 minutes.  Full fade.

Power Forward

Top GPP Play: Paul George

Paul George being eligible for the power forward position is huge!  While he doesn’t have the ceiling AD does, he allows you to get that 50+ fantasy point ceiling without breaking the bank at 8.7k on Draftkings which is 3,000 less than Davis, a substantial difference.  George took 23 shots in his first game and I think the usage continues while the efficiency should improve.  George at the power forward spot is a LOCK for me tonight.

Fade: Al Horford

I don’t think Al Horford is a very popular option tonight but if you were thinking about playing him…. don’t.  Horford sees an incredibly low usage rate for an all-star.  There are way too many mouths to feed on this Celtics offense and while Horford may be efficient in what he does, the volume isn’t there to provide a ceiling to pay off a 6.1k price tag.  Don’t even think about it.

Center

Top GPP Play: Karl-Anthony Towns

A poor showing by Towns in the season opener where he burned a lot of people (me included) will turn around quickly.  Towns is someone you don’t necessarily have to pay up for on this slate but one that provides a huge ceiling for only 8.5k on Draftkings.  Fouling out in his first game killed his minutes and overall usage but we should see that return to what it hovered at last year tonight.  The matchup with the Cavs isn’t an easy one but Towns is too laterally quick and skilled to be slowed down by Tristan Thompson.  My top GPP center if you have the price.

Fade: Alex Len

We’ve seen the Alex Len show before.  The guy cannot stay out of foul trouble and is a liability for anyone’s DFS team.  Len is projecting to be fairly popular tonight in GPPs and I’m not going to be buying into it.  His projected usage + minutes is to volatile on his new team and it isn’t projecting to be a lot this early in the season.

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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