Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (10/31/18)
Happy Halloween everyone! We’re again working with a smaller seven-game slate tonight so with that being said make sure to retract your bankroll exposure as we should be dealing with a lot of chalk again tonight. In addition, you can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Play: Frank Ntilikina
The Knicks second-year guard has found himself in a starting role early this season where he’s been seeing big-time minutes. Consistently seeing over 30 minutes per game this year at the point guard position it would be foolish to expect Ntilikina’s price to stay this low for too much longer. Remember, DFS prices are like the stock market and it will be very important to “buy-low” here. Ntilikina is seeing his usage rate creep up as well where I expect it to stabilize around the 20% mark. Ntilikina is the top value play on the slate for me.
Fade: Reggie Jackson
So get this. Draftkings has Reggie Jackson priced 1.5k more than Frank Ntilikina on this slate when he’s seeing fewer minutes and less usage over his past few games for the Pistons. Not really sure what caused Jackson’s DK price to jump ~10% after posting back to back sub-20 point DK performances but this is the clearest fade on the slate. Don’t let anyone tell you to play Reggie Jackson.
Top GPP Play: D’Angelo Russell
D-Lo is rating out as one of the best plays on this slate. His price has saw a 9.2% decrease since his last game where his minutes were limited in a blowout of the Knicks. Russell has been averaged above 27% usage this season and is finally starting to get minutes in the 30-32 range where he provides a true ceiling. He should cruise to value tonight with a true 7-8x ceiling in this matchup with a weak Pistons D (may see time against Ish Smith = buckets).
Fade: Josh Hart
Fish are going to flock to the Lakers in DFS and maybe not as much in years past as the industry is literally sharper than ever (and will continue to get smarter) Josh Hart is an easy fade with this Lakers roster back at full power. There are so many mouths to feed on the offense, Hart is going to take a major hit in usage and minutes while moving back into that complementary role. Unfortunately, 30+ minute games for Hart are going to be hard to come by this season without injuries or suspensions again. Without that huge minute load, Hart really doesn’t have a ceiling at 5.1k.
Top GPP Play: Harrison Barnes
Going back to Harrison Barnes where he provides a solid 4-5x floor with that true 7-8x ceiling seeing major time on the floor for the Mavericks which obviously correlates to his ceiling. This is a huge pace up game for the Mavericks against the Lakers in a game with a total of 234.5 (2nd highest on the slate) where the Mavs are implied for 113.5 points. Barnes has averaged a 22% usage rate this season which should be more than enough to pay off his salary and provide upside in such a high-scoring affair.
Fade: DeMar DeRozan
DeRozan’s price has gotten a bit out of hand and it’s not something I can come close to paying for. DeRozan is producing a higher than a sustainable rate of peripherals while keeping his scoring around the 30 ppg mark without taking any three-pointers. Both of these figures will come falling back to Earth and we will see that DeRozan is about 1k over-priced right now. I get that this is a pace up game for the Spurs but it is also the 2nd lowest game total on the slate. Stay away and pay up elsewhere.
Top GPP Play: Rudy Gay
While DeMar DeRozan is grossly overpriced, we’re seeing Rudy Gay get major minutes this season in addition to respectable usage. At only 6.1k, Gay is projected for over 32 minutes while producing 1.1 FP/minute this season. If he’s able to keep up this production or overproduce in a prime matchup against a team that really struggles with the SF/PF position in a pace up game I love Gay to crush value at this price.
Fade: Nikola Mirotic
Anthony Davis being in our out makes this a lot clearer of a play but with myself assuming AD is going to play tonight Mirotic is a clear fade at 7.5k where he is clearly overproducing and cannot keep up a 1.35 FP/minute rate going forward. There’s only been one game this year where Mirotic was played over 30 minutes and it was the game AD was out. With Mirotic projected for around 29-31 minutes tonight in an extremely tough matchup with Draymond Green, I’m very confident he misses value. FADE.
Top GPP Play: Jarrett Allen
Jarrett Allen is an ELITE play on this slate where his upside is truly insurmountable if he gets the minutes. He is the only Nets starter that grabs boards and his block upside really rounds out his ceiling when factoring in he’s a lock for anywhere between 12-20 real points tonight. His block upside has raised his price on Fanduel so while he comes in as a LOCK on Draftkings tonight at 5.5k I believe he’s viable on both sites. Allen is a box score stat stuffer and the only thing holding him back from these 40+ fantasy point games are the minutes. The Nets will need him on the floor with Griffin and Drummond tonight so expect him to near his ceiling.
Fade: Blake Griffin
Blake Griffin’s kryptonite is emphasized in this article’s cover photo. Jarrett Allen has truly made Blake Griffin his son this season absolutely destroying him with two monster blocks on Griffin’s dunk attempts. While the common WRONG consensus is that the Nets are bad against big-men they have absolutely crushed this season defending in the paint posting a 3rd best in the league defensive rating against forwards of 23.4. They are middle of the pack against center so if you HAVE to target the Nets with a big man it’s with Andre Drummond. Blake Griffin is going to struggle in a big way tonight.
Written By: Robert Viafora