Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (11/12/18)
Solid 9-game slate today to start the week. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Play: Zach LaVine
Back to Zach LaVine today who we rode on Saturday for an easy win where he cruised to 6+x on Draftkings. As we talked about Saturday, LaVine has an insane usage rate on this team and plays very heavy minutes for the Bulls with Kris Dunn still out. LaVine’s price only rose $200 since Saturday so that doesn’t really hurt his upside. Another elite GPP play today where there are other popular options at PG.
Fade: Kyle Lowry
Kyle Lowry has posted some huge games this year but recently has seen an extremely low usage %. With this Toronto team more and more Leonard’s and the bench usage likely increasing as we get deeper into the season, which is something Toronto prides itself on, I think we see Lowry’s price come back into the 7k range. Don’t pay for him tonight.
Top GPP Play: Spencer Dinwiddie
Dinwiddie sees a huge usage rate while on the floor and has been seeing his minutes jump late game with D’Angelo Russell moving to the bench in the final 6 minutes. Dinwiddie has been shooting from deep over 40% this year and seems to make major improvements after last year where he was a top 3 MIP candidate. Amazing play sub-5k on this slate.
Fade: Andrew Wiggins
A lot of people will be jumping on Wiggins gone but I’m not too convinced. Wiggins is extremely dependent on his scoring and while I do think he possesses a solid floor tonight, the upside is really never there as he is not a consistent contributor in the peripheral department. At 6.3k tonight I’m going to be fading. I think there’s a chance he hits 5x but anything above 6x is unrealistic and what we’re looking for in GPPs.
Top GPP Play: Wayne Ellington
This is a bit of a punt play but after Wayne Ellington burned people when he was mega-chalk he should be about 1/3 of the ownership tonight where is in a very similair situation with projected minutes and usage. While the Heat don’t play at an extremely fast rate, the Sixers do and should increase the # of possessions in this game tonight. At 3.8k with the 3-point bonus on DK I think he makes for a great punt in GPPs. He’s not going to dud like he did the other night. 10 DK point floor where his ceiling is legitimately over 30.
Fade: Luka Doncic
Doncic currently holds the questionable tag so he keeps an eye on him as value could open up elsewhere on this Mavs team but Doncic should be a clear “don’t-play” either way. His price has risen up to the point where he’s not going to provide a ton of upside and him being a rookie historically leads to DK inconsistency. In a surprisingly pace-down matchup with the Bulls, I’m not going to touch Doncic here.
Top GPP Play: Derrick Favors
The only issue with Favors is his minutes tonight but when he has played this season he’s been incredibly effective averaging over 1.1 DK points per minute. Favors is priced down crazy low tonight because of the matchup and while I am slightly concerned I’m going to avoid DvP for the upside Favors has and his recent production. Major upside at his price tonight.
Fade: Taj Gibson
Bigs against Brooklyn, blah blah blah. This is going to continue to change as the Nets have major rim protectors in Ed Davis and Jarrett Allen ( a top 3 rim protector in the NBA – future Rudy Gobert). The reason the Nets have been torn up by some bigs this season is their insistence on playing Jared Dudley as a “stretch-four” who hasn’t shot over 30% from 3 this season. Davis should be matched up with Gibson a ton this game and is a very tough matchup for him at 5.4k to get anywhere close to his ceiling.
Top GPP Play: Jarrett Allen
The questionable tag is going to keep ownership low on Allen tonight and with his price coming down I love his increasing Pt/$ ceiling. KAT is basically the worst interior defender in the NBA and should get destroyed in the paint tonight. Allen is a major pt/min contributor and should dominate this matchup.
Fade: Anthony Davis
This is a pretty tough matchup for Davis in a pace-down game. His price is way up where he literally needs over 65 DK points to reach his “ceiling”. Obviously this is popular for AD but I don’t see it happening in this game. I much rather pay up for Kevin Durant if you’re paying all the way up.
Written By: Robert Viafora
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